In Canada, we count seats, not votes. Just like in American Presidential elections, you can win the popular vote and lose the election. In fact, that happened to Justin Trudeau’s father in 1979.
Today, INNOVATIVE released a new analysis that shows the Liberals are doing far better within distinct groups of swing ridings then national or regional results would suggest.
INNOVATIVE has combined the results of three online surveys conducted from late April to early June 2021. A total of 6,360 responses have been weighted by age, gender and provincial sub-regions using the latest Statistics Canada Census data to a weighted sample of 5,000 to to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population.
When then looked at those results by combining seats into 12 clusters based on a combination of which parties are most competitive in those seats across the last 3 elections and key regional breaks that also influence the party system in Canada.
To say the results are encouraging for the Liberals is a huge under-statement.
The Liberals are growing significantly in four groups of seats where they can add seats, and they are stable in the seats they are already strong in. The Liberals already had a very “efficient” vote in the last election. By that we mean they did not run up their margin of victory in a small group of seats but won more seats more narrowly.
The Tories have lost ground in their base seats. While that is not a problem in their Prairie base, they are now vulnerable in seats they won by 10 points outside of the Prairies, both those in English Canada and those in the Quebec Region.
The NDP feel the same pain as the CPC. Not only have the NDP slipped in their swing seats, but they have also dropped 15-points in their consistent seats.
The Bloc are the only opposition party holding their own. In Montreal outside the Island, the Bloc have slipped, but only marginally. In the regions, both the Bloc and Liberals declined but the Bloc remains the clear leader.
The bottom line is clear. The Liberals are poised to gain enough seats to win a comfortable majority. Waiting to call the election provides an opportunity for unexpected events (remember WE) to erode their current advantage. While there is no guarantee the Liberals will be able to hold this lead in a campaign, dropping the writ this summer allows them to start with a very strong advantage.