INNOVATIVE’s tracking shows most Canadians are skeptical that Canada will get a deal with the US. They don’t believe that Trump will keep to a deal. Canadians expect it will be the US’s fault if the deal fails, and a majority think Carney is doing a good job.
These results are drawn from an online survey sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group between April 30th and May 12th, 2026, of adult Canadians. The survey interviewed n=2,215 Canadian adults, 18 years or older, and the results are weighted to n=1500 based on Census data from Statistics Canada. Results are weighted by age, gender, region, and past vote to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census data.
On the Victoria Day weekend, Undersecretary of War for Policy, Elbridge Colby, announced that the United States would pause its participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defence, a bilateral military advisory body with Canada established in 1940. Over the next few days, Congressional Republicans once again drew attention to the conflict over the Online Streaming Act and its implications for American firms. The ongoing negotiations surrounding the CUSMA (USMCA) mandatory six-year joint review are increasingly public, at least from the American side, as Canada and the United States work toward a July 1 deadline.
Canadians remain highly engaged with news about the Canada-U.S. relationship. Attention to Canada-US news holds steady with 66% of Canadians following it closely, although this is down somewhat from a February peak of 74%. Fear of Trump has plateaued at 65% since February. Canadians remain a lot more likely to approve than disapprove of the Carney government’s response to Trump, although it has declined following a spike after the Prime Minister’s widely noted speech at Davos in late January.
All that attention doesn’t mean Canadians are optimistic about the prospects for a successful negotiation, however. A majority of Canadians don’t believe a deal will get done, and even fewer trust Trump to honor one. Overall, only 14% of Canadians believe that we will get a deal and that the Trump administration will honour that deal.
Canadians are 4 times more likely to blame the US than Canada if negotiations break down, and a majority say Carney is making a good effort to reach a deal. Half (51%) say a trade agreement is unlikely (net -18), and 64% say Trump will not stick to any agreement reached (net -39). Skepticism about the deal is broadly consistent across regions, age groups, and economic segments, though Canadians 55+ are noticeably more negative.
We’ve only scratched the surface of this dataset. You can read more in the full report linked below.
If you are looking for more details on what Canadians think about how the federal and provincial governments are responding to Trump, contact us at info@innovativeresearch.ca for our National Trends briefing service.
Click here to read the full report!
