Neighbours

What makes Canadian and American politics alike, and different

Canadians follow American politics with a deep and abiding interest. As Pierre Trudeau once said to the Washington Press Club, “Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” Canadians are keen to understand what is going on in the current US election and what it might mean for them.

INNOVATIVE is helping to answer that questions by conducting a pair of online surveys in the United States and Canada to understand the political landscape in both countries and the values voters hold. The objective of the study is to answer three key questions.

  1. What is happening in the 2020 US Presidential election and why?
  2. What the similarities and differences between Canada and the US?
  3. How have these differences have changed since Trump’s election in 2016.
From October We asked 1,500 eligible voters in Canada and 1,000 registered voters in the United States questions about their attitudes towards their governments, their vote intentions, and their values on a range of dimensions. In the US, we also included an oversample of 1,200 registered voters in 6 tipping point states.

This study is a follow-up to a similar study we conducted in 2016, allowing us to understand not only the current landscape in each country, but how things have been changing over time. While the 2020 study has been updated with new questions, the results of the 2016 study are shown for comparison wherever available.

Dig into the posts below for detailed insights, or read our full report here.

Methodology: Results for this study come from two online surveys of American registered voters and Canadian eligible voters. Both surveys were in field from September 29, 2020 to October 6, 2020. The American survey has a total weighted sample size of 1,000; the sample was weighted by age, gender, region, education, race, and urban/rural. The Canadian survey has a total weighted sample size of 1,500; the sample was weighted by age, gender, and region. See the full report for detailed methodology.

Insights

October 8, 2020

Five things about the US election that will surprise Canadians

Canadians like to think that when George H. W. Bush talked about a kinder, gentler nation, he was talking about Canada. But recent results from INNOVATIVE’s two-nation study of values and politics in Canada and the US with 2,771 eligible Canadian voters and 2,435 registered US voters suggests Canadians may want to reconsider their assumptions.
October 9, 2020

Trump may personally beat COVID-19, but it can still be his downfall come election day

The 2020 US Presidential Election is a referendum on Donald Trump, and he is losing. Our online survey of 2,435 registered voters shows Donald Trump is trailing Joe Biden by 5 percentage points across the country as a whole. In 2016, Trump was able to win enough tight races in key states to win the electoral college, despite losing the popular votes. He is not doing so at this point in the race. Trump trails Biden by 7 percentage points in the states most likely to be the electoral college tipping point this time around.
October 9, 2020

Key value conflicts help explain differences in Canadian and American politics

Looking across 21 value dimensions combining questions relating to economic, cultural, populist/alienation, openness, and post-materialist values, Canadians and Americans are generally more similar than different. But there are two big, and seven more moderate value gaps, that help exist explain a lot about the differences in our politics.
October 9, 2020

How are Values Changing in Canada and the US?

In the wake of the growing Black Lives Matter movement and increasing discussions about racial justice, we have seen a dramatic rise in the esteem of Black people in both countries. In 2016, just over half (51%) Americans reported a favourable impression of Black people (7 or higher on a 0 to 10 scale). Now 62% of Americans say the same, an increase of 11 points. Similar, in Canada, favourable impressions of Black people have risen from 55% to 65%, a gain of 10 point.

Insights

October 8, 2020

Five things about the US election that will surprise Canadians

Canadians like to think that when George H. W. Bush talked about a kinder, gentler nation, he was talking about Canada. But recent results from INNOVATIVE’s two-nation study of values and politics in Canada and the US with 2,771 eligible Canadian voters and 2,435 registered US voters suggests Canadians may want to reconsider their assumptions.
October 9, 2020

Trump may personally beat COVID-19, but it can still be his downfall come election day

The 2020 US Presidential Election is a referendum on Donald Trump, and he is losing. Our online survey of 2,435 registered voters shows Donald Trump is trailing Joe Biden by 5 percentage points across the country as a whole. In 2016, Trump was able to win enough tight races in key states to win the electoral college, despite losing the popular votes. He is not doing so at this point in the race. Trump trails Biden by 7 percentage points in the states most likely to be the electoral college tipping point this time around.
October 9, 2020

Key value conflicts help explain differences in Canadian and American politics

Looking across 21 value dimensions combining questions relating to economic, cultural, populist/alienation, openness, and post-materialist values, Canadians and Americans are generally more similar than different. But there are two big, and seven more moderate value gaps, that help exist explain a lot about the differences in our politics.
October 9, 2020

How are Values Changing in Canada and the US?

In the wake of the growing Black Lives Matter movement and increasing discussions about racial justice, we have seen a dramatic rise in the esteem of Black people in both countries. In 2016, just over half (51%) Americans reported a favourable impression of Black people (7 or higher on a 0 to 10 scale). Now 62% of Americans say the same, an increase of 11 points. Similar, in Canada, favourable impressions of Black people have risen from 55% to 65%, a gain of 10 point.