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Canadians more ‘hawkish’ on Canada-US Trade

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  • Canadians more ‘hawkish’ on Canada-US Trade
September 11, 2026

But an age divide is widening, as older Canadians are much more ‘hawkish’ than younger Canadians

These are the results of an online survey conducted between August 24, 2026, and August 25, 2026, sponsored and conducted by INNOVATIVE RESEARCH GROUP. This survey interviewed n=1,345 Canadian citizens, 18 years or older. The results are nationally weighted to n=1,200. Results are weighted by age, gender, region, education, and self-reported federal past vote to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census data.

Hawks have grown across every partisan and age group since January, with the largest increases among NDP identifiers (+18 points) and Canadians aged 55+ (+16 points). They are the strongest supporters of the federal response to Trump: net approval reaches +64 among Hawks and +48 among the Conflicted, compared with only +7 among Doves and −11 among the Ambivalent.

Carney holds a decisive advantage on managing Canada–U.S. relations, leading Poilievre 50% to 27% overall. He is preferred by 71% of Hawks and 58% of the Conflicted, while Doves are almost evenly divided between Carney and Poilievre (42%–40%). Open-ended responses reinforce Carney’s advantage: by late August, 46% of federal-response approvers cited his diplomacy or leadership, up from 35% earlier in the month, while calls for a stronger stance among disapprovers fell from 38% to 14%.

The Elbows Up decision to suspend negotiations receives broad support: net support is +49 overall, rising to +91 among Hawks and +79 among the Conflicted. Even Doves are positive (+21), while Ambivalent Canadians are the only segment with negative net support (−5) and 38% remain unsure.

Support for Poilievre and the CPC’s response produces the reverse pattern: overall opinion is evenly divided, but net approval is highest among Doves (+14) and lowest among Hawks (−17). Supporters cite his ideas (26%) and willingness to stand up to Trump (17%); detractors emphasize distrust (18%), possible appeasement of Trump (14%), and the absence of a clear strategy (14%).

Click here to read the full report!

 

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Natalia Zuluaga

Natalia Zuluaga

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      Marina is a Manager of Omnibus Research Services at Innovative Research Group, where she leads Canada This Month, IRG’s flagship monthly omnibus study tracking Canadian public opinion, federal vote intention, and special topics ranging from social issues to economic attitudes. Marina brings a rigorous analytical approach to each wave of the study, ensuring the research delivers timely, actionable insights for IRG’s audience.

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      • Jason is a Vice President at Innovative, specialising in research across complex, highly regulated industries. Jason’s quantitative experience covers a wide array of analytical techniques from multivariate and time-series analysis to market modeling and sample design. On the qualitative side, Jason is an experienced interviewer and focus group moderator. 

        For over 15 years, Jason has been a sought-out advisor on regulatory issues, customer engagement programs, and customer satisfaction benchmarking. He has a unique ability to distill information about complex and heavily regulated industries into engagement programs that capture informed insights from consumers and the broader public.

        Jason has a Bachelor of Commerce degree and a Master of Science degree in Managerial Economics, both from Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario.

        When he’s not at work, Jason enjoys exploring Ontario’s wine country and wines.

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      Greg is the founder and President of Innovative Research Group. As its founder, Greg leads Innovative’s mission to evolve market research practices by transforming the latest developments in academia into proprietary models that deliver actionable insights. As President, Greg oversees Innovative’s methodical best practices and acts as the Lead Methodologist on projects across the organization.

      As a former Principal Secretary, Greg has built a career at the intersection of public policy, communications and public opinion. With over 30 years of communications and opinion research experience, Greg uses a full range of research tools for a variety of government and corporate clients across industries such as financial services, healthcare and the energy and infrastructure sector. 

      Greg’s research has been highlighted in media across the country.  He has been featured in many media outlets including Global TV, the Globe and Mail, the Hill Times, the National Post and various other PostMedia Network newspapers. In 2016, Greg received the Public Affairs Association of Canada Award of Distinction.  

      Greg has a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of British Columbia and has taken courses in data analyses, research methodologies, and management from Essex University, York University, and Harvard University.

      When away from his desk, Greg can be found travelling between British Columbia, Ontario, and England to spend time with his wife and daughters.