If the election were held today, more Ontarians would vote for the Ontario PC’s than any other party. However, when we dig into the leadership numbers, issues and regions, a more nuanced picture emerges. Innovative Research Group Inc. (INNOVATIVE) conducted a mixed land line and cell live caller telephone survey of 600 respondents immediately following the Ontario Throne Speech. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 %, 19 times out of 20.
In addition to initial vote, the poll examined second choice preferences, party identification, time for a change and a leadership. Key findings include:
Regionally, the story is more confused. In 2014, the Ontario Liberals won a majority with 58 seats in a legislature of 107. If they were to lose just 5 seats in the next election, the government would lose its majority. At the same time, the Ontario PC’s won 28 seats and the Ontario NDP won 21 seats, meaning that either party needs to make substantial gains in order to form the next government. Our survey found that while there has been a shift in support away from the Liberals in the North East CTA, the Liberals are holding their own in most other regions and in some cases may be gaining from the NDP.