Expert analysis of the latest numbers In the new battleground ridings poll, the Conservatives seem to be making major gains in Ontario, Quebec and B.C. In which province(s) are those gains likeliest to hold?
B.C. looks the best for the Conservatives. The introduction of B.C.’s own carbon tax has created a backlash that is perfect for the Tories. The NDP could gain, but its message is yes to a carbon tax – just not this one. The Conservatives have an unambiguous message, and simple sells. Ontario is complicated by listeriosis, which has been used to evoke Walkerton. That could potentially create some fear about a majority Conservative government.