Early Signs Show That Recent Liberal Budget Fails to Reset the Political Debate
The federal budget presented an opportunity for the Liberal government to rebound and improve its approval ratings. However, a new INNOVATIVE poll shows no sign of a rebound and some signs that the federal budget may make things worse for the Liberal government.
A poll conducted this weekend by INNOVATIVE asked 1,408 Canadians about their reaction to the federal budget and their perceptions of its potential impact. The results are weighted to 1,000 by age, gender, region, education, and self-reported federal past vote to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census data. For more information on the survey’s methodology, please refer to the report.
Public interest in the federal budget is low compared to previous years. About half of the respondents do not recall reading, seeing or hearing anything about the budget, steady since last year.
Public opinion on the federal budget is negative among those familiar with the topic. 53% are dissatisfied with the budget, while only 23% are satisfied. Net satisfaction with the federal budget has sharply declined by 23 points since last year, currently at -30%. Values play a strong role in public perception, with satisfaction down most not just among Conservative clusters, but among Left Liberals.
When it comes to impact, a majority believe that the federal budget will negatively impact both their personal situation as well as broader issues. Most Canadians think that the federal budget will have a negative impact on the economy, resulting in higher unemployment and lower rate of economic growth. As is often the case, the public expects more taxes and user fees. However, the Liberals will disappointed to learn more feel the budget will make health care worse, not better, despite new funding arrangements with the provinces. These negative perceptions lead to feelings of anger and anxiety among half of the respondents.
Initial signs show the budget also failed in its attempt to create new wedge issues. When asked whether the federal budget will make things better or worse for younger Canadians, 44% say worse. Liberal government’s attempt to create a wedge issue against Conservatives falls flat among young people, but even more so among their parents’ generation.
The attempt to use an increase in the inclusion rate for capital gains tax to create a positive contrast with the CPC also is off to a rocky start. While 44% are familiar with the plan, half of those familiar believe it to be a mistake and think it will affect how much tax they pay.
The bottom line is that the government’s biggest opportunity to change the narrative had no immediate effect on the political dynamic. There is no significant difference between the vote preferences from this weekend compared to last month’s results. Today, 41% indicate they will vote for the Conservative party, while only 26% favor the Liberals.
Overall, the budget failed to engage the public in a meaningful way and ultimately fell short of its potential to address the concerns of Canadians. The survey results indicate that the budget was not just a missed opportunity for the Liberals to begin a political recovery, it may be setting them further back.
