Today INNOVATIVE is releasing an in-depth analysis of our political tracking in Canada’s four largest provinces. These results add more detail to the results previously released on June 4th.
The Ontario government is continuing to receiving very strong support (71%) for its response to COVID-19. This has driven a dramatic reversal in Doug Ford’s image. Until May 2020, all of our polls showed a majority of Ontarians with an unfavourable view of him but in May that pattern reversed. Now Ford has maintained that turn around for a second month in a row. In particular, Ford receives the highest marks of any leader among three of our six value clusters – Thrifty Moderates, Populist Conservatives, and Deferential Conservatives. He also receives the highest mark among Strugglers, a group of voters who believe in the Canadian Dream but find it harder and harder to get by every year. While these underlying strengths haven’t created a lead in vote intention for the PCs, they are competitive in both the Thrifty Moderate and Struggler groups and, given Ford’s popularity in these groups, have significant room for growth.
For detailed results on Ontario, download our report here.
While the Alberta government stumbled in its COVID-19 response in April, through May approval rallied and now 59% of respondents say they approve of their governments handling. At the same time, Jason Kenney’s personal favourability rallied from a net score of -10% in March to +4% now, leaving him statistically tied with Rachel Notley (+1%). Like Ford, Kenney’s favourability is strongest among the Struggler group of voters but, unlike in Ontario, the United Conservatives have translated that support into a strong lead in vote intention among that group.
For detailed results on Alberta, download our report here.
The Quebec government has continued to receive strong marks on its handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, which has consistently led to strong personal favourability for Legault since March. Nearly half (46%) of Quebec respondents say that Legault would be the best choice for Premier with Anglade as a distant second at only 12%. Legault is viewed favourably among every value cluster and has strong favourability numbers among both Struggler and Achiever economic groups.
The CAQ similarly lead in vote intention among both Struggler and Achiever groups and in all the value clusters except the two left groups – Left Liberals and the Core Left.
For detailed results on Quebec, download our report here.
The BC government continues to see strong approval numbers on its handling of COVID-19, above the average of provincial governments. This has led to growing support for John Horgan personally who has hit a new high in net favourability at +39%, far ahead of Andrew Wilkinson (-15%) and Adam Olsen (-5%). This holds among all value clusters and economic gap segments, where Horgan is the most popular leader in each.
These strong personal results match a strong lead in vote intention for the BC NDP, with 43% saying they would vote for the BC NDP, while only 34% say they would vote for the BC Liberals.
For detailed results on BC, download our report here.