Today INNOVATIVE is releasing an in-depth analysis of our political tracking, both nationally and in Canada’s four largest provinces. This adds to the results previously released on May 7th.
The federal government upped its COVID-19 game early in March and has sustained the approval of two-thirds of Canadians. That performance has driven a jump in overall government approval and in Justin Trudeau’s image, which is positive for the first time since SNC Lavalin. These improvements in underlying numbers have translated into a larger lead for the Liberal party, with 41% of the vote. The Liberals enjoy the support of half their key value clusters and have grown to 50% support in the Core Left Cluster, which is terrible news for the NDP and Greens. Among economic strugglers, the Liberals have grown an 11-point lead over the CPC, who are critical to the swing suburban seats in English Canada. This all combines to give the Liberals a strong foundation for a fall election.
For detailed Federal results, download our report here.
The Ontario government is receiving very strong support (73%) for its response to COVID-19. This has driven a dramatic “rally ‘round the flag” lift in overall government approval to 70%. The most remarkable finding in Ontario is the dramatic reversal in Doug Ford’s image. All of our polls before present have showed a majority of Ontarians with an unfavourable view of him. Now, his negatives have plummeted to 28% while his favourables have grown 49%. For the first time he has a clear lead as best to be Premier. That said, all this improvement in underlying numbers has not allowed PCs to overcome the Liberal advantage in party ID. While the PCs have narrowed the gap, the Liberals still lead by 4 points. In particular, the Liberals have a slight edge among struggling Ontarians, likely due to spill-over from federal COVID-19 income support.
For detailed results on Ontario, download our report here.
While the Alberta government stumbled in its COVID-19 response in April, it has begun to recover in May. As a result, the Alberta government is not seeing the same degree of “rally ‘round the flag” lift in their general approval. That said, the UCP enjoy a strong brand advantage that supports a stable lead in vote. The UCP continues to do well with the key elements of their election coalition. Premier Kenney has experienced a small bounce and moved into net favourable territory for the first time since before the last election.
For detailed results on Alberta, download our report here.
In part due to its strong stand with the federal government over the management of returning travellers, Quebec started very strong in approval of its COVID-19 response. While Quebec continues to receive approval from over 60% of its residents, as deaths have mounted, the province’s rating has slipped just below the average for all provinces. Similarly, last month we saw a strong “rally ‘round the flag’ spike in overall government approval, which is diminished coming into May.
Personally, Premier Legault is impressing Quebecers. More than half (55%) say they have a better impression of him as a result of how he is handling COVID-19, and a strong majority (58%) have a favourable impression overall, driving “best Premier” to 48%. That said, the CAQ remains in a competitive race. A spike in support in April has declined to a narrow 2 point lead this month.
The challenge for the CAQ is party brands. More than any other governing party in Canada, the CAQ depends on the votes of people who feel closer to other parties. Right now, the CAQ is having particular difficulties rallying people who are conflicted on “time for a change”. However, Legault’s high personal numbers provide the CAQ with a significant opportunity to rally those voters in the next election.
For detailed results on Quebec, download our report here.
BC has seen steady improvement in the public’s assessment of its performance on COVID-19, and now scores 77% approval. This is reflected in a strong “rally ‘round the flag” rise in overall government approval to 74%. John Horgan has a lower profile than many of his peers, but has still left 47% feeling better about him as a result of his response to COVID-19. His favourables have been growing over the pandemic, and now sit at 54% with his “best Premier” score rising to 45%. These improving underlying numbers have helped the NDP build an 8-point lead over the Liberals. With the underlying Liberal and NDP brands tied in party loyalists, the NDP have gained an advantage but remain vulnerable in a campaign.
For detailed results on BC, download our report here.