A new INNOVATIVE poll shows the BC Conservatives leading by 5-points among decided voters with one week until election day.
The online survey was conducted and sponsored by Innovative Research Group Inc.(INNOVATIVE) among a sample of 1,154 BC citizens (weighted to a sample size of 1,000). The survey was in field from October 15th to 19th. It presents a picture of how the campaign has unfolded so far, and any impacts from last week’s leaders’ debate.
Key results
The Conservatives have pulled into a clear lead.
The Conservatives lead by 5-points among decided voters: 43% to 38% for the NDP. This is a marked swing from a 2-point NDP lead in our initial campaign poll conducted at the end of September. The Conservatives have at least marginal leads in every region, and a demographic analysis shows large leads among Punjabi and Chinese speakers – key voters in several Lower Mainland swing seats.
The election never shifted from referendum to contrast.
Elections often begin as a referendum on the incumbent, and then shift over time into a debate about who is best to form the next government. However, in this campaign, that hasn’t happened. Agreement that it is “time for a change” is up 8-points from the first week of the campaign, including a 10-point increase in those who strongly agree. Two-thirds (65%) now agree with this statement, up from 57% at the end of September. This is higher than the worst result for Christy Clark (62%) or John Horgan (55%).
At the same time, 40% agree that “the NDP may have their problems, but they are still the best party to form government. That is a solid result for an incumbent government, but the NDP will need to increase this number over the final week of the campaign to close the vote gap.
So far, the Conservatives have won the battle to define Doerksen.
Doerksen has gained between 6 and 10 points on specific leadership attributes, including a 10-point increase in the share of voters who rate him as the most competent choice. Overall, Doerksen’s personal brand remains neutral, with many unsure how they feel about him. But this is a marked improvement from where Kerry-Lynn Findlay ended up before resigning (net favourability of -32%), and is better than Eby (net favourability of -9%), whose brand took a beating after voters reacted to the early election call.
All told, Doerksen now has a marginal 2-point lead over Eby as Best Premier. He is the choice of 32%, compared to Eby’s 30%. This is an increase of 9-points for Doerksen since the start of the campaign, while Eby has held steady.
There is no indication of last-minute momentum for the NDP.
About half of respondents (46%) watched or heard about the debate. Among those who did, more thought Doerksen won than Eby. 30% said Doerksen did best, compared to 22% for Eby and 17% who selected Emily Lowan. Predictably, partisans for each major party thought their own leader did best, but among independent voters, more still preferred Doerksen’s performance: 21% vs. 16% for Eby and 13% for Lowan.
With the challenging trend on time for a change and no impact from the debate, there is no sign from this poll of an NDP turnaround just yet.
There is potential for the NDP to narrow the gap with Green voters.
Overall, 37% of voters who have a second choice say they have not fully made up their mind. This number is highest for Green voters at 54%, who are the least certain of any party’s supporters and also strongly favour the NDP as their second choice. However, potential gains from Green switchers alone would not be enough to close the current 5-point gap completely.
