The big story in tonight’s election seems clear – Doug Ford’s PCs are headed for another majority government. But while the PCs are likely to win a majority of seats, there is still a high likelihood that many seats will change. The Liberals look like they will poll anywhere from 6 to 9 points higher than 2018 while the NDP are likely to lose as much as 10% of their vote. Let’s look at some key races that will tell us how good or bad a night each party is having. Click here to see the election night cheat sheet!
The PC – Liberal Battle
The main battle in Ontario election is between the Liberals and the PCs. With the Liberals polling better than in 2018, they are likely to take back at least a few of the seats they lost in 2018. While these seats are found all across Ontario, here are some of the central battles.
The Progressive Primary
The biggest question tonight is not who is going to win but who will come second. The NDP start with a lot more seats than the Liberals, but their core is much smaller.
Potential PC steals from the NDP
The PCs have been aiming to win over “lunch bucket” New Democrats, voters that shower after work and identify as workers, not as bosses.
Three Way Races
There are several races that could be won by any of three major parties.
There are three ridings where the Liberals lost candidates after the candidate deadline and so now have no one in the race.