In a neck and neck race for US President, registered voters say Trump was a better President than Biden. Against the background of a pessimistic mood, Trump leads Biden both on performance and expectations that he has and will make things better for the average voter.
For Independence Day, Innovative Research Group Inc. (INNOVATIVE) released a survey of 2,946 US registered voters conducted in June prior to the Presidential debate. This includes oversamples in two critical battlegrounds (Georgia and Pennsylvania), a likely Biden state (Minnesota) and a likely Trump state (North Carolina).
American voters are in an even darker mood in 2024 than they were in 2020. Wrong track has risen from 63% to 69% while those saying the economy is doing well has dropped from 37% to 33%.
American voters are polarized in their partisanship. There is only a 2-point advantage for the Democrats in party identification (brand affinity) and a 1-point different in voting behavior (brand loyalty).
American voters see Donald Trump as a better President than Joe Biden. A majority (53%) approve of Donald Trump’s performance as President compared to 44% for Biden.
American voters see Donald Trump as more likely to make things better for them than Joe Biden. Comparing records, 51% of US voters say Donald Trump made things better for them while only 44% say that about Joe Biden. Looking ahead, more voters say Trump will make things better, not worse, on affordable housing, making ends meet and helping people like you get ahead. Biden gets negative scores on all three measures of hope.
Despite all this, it was a neck and neck horserace prior to the debate. Trump was ahead by just one percent (statistically not significant). Trump had a significant lead in North Carolina while Biden had a significant lead in Minnesota. Biden had a marginal lead in Pennsylvania while Trump had a narrow lead in Georgia.
There is not a lot of room for movement in this race. Most registered voters (70%) say they have already heard enough to make up their minds. Even the charges against Trump have a limited impact on the vote. While a bare majority of US voters say the charges against Donald Trump have merit, 40% think they are the results of his political enemies hijacking the justice system.
The 2024 US Presidential election is unique in having two Presidents run against each other. Each has a record in office. Each is well known. For most US voters, the choice is clear, and they have already made up their minds. For those still up for grabs, Donald Trump is seen as having the stronger record as President and more likely to deliver change for the better in their daily lives.
Read the full report here!
