The presence of the New Blue Party of Ontario on the ballot does not appear to be harming the Tories’ numbers. These findings come from INNOVATIVE’s latest online survey of 1,434 Ontario residents weighted to n=1200, conducted from May 17 to May 23, 2022.
The New Blue Coalition
Respondents were randomly shown the ballot question either with or without the New Blue Party to assess the impact of seeing the party on a ballot. A total of 613 respondents were shown the New Blue Party while 587 were not.
Just 4% of respondents in the sample that was shown New Blue said they intend to vote New Blue. This share of the vote does not appear to come at the Progressive Conservatives’ expense.
COVID-19
One key issue that appears to differentiate New Blue voters from PC voters is COVID-19. A strong majority of New Blue supporters believe that COVID-19 restrictions went too far. Among Ontarians who believe that public health restrictions put in place by the Ontario government were too tight, 14% intend to vote New Blue. Among Ontarians who say that they are angry that the government has tried to force Canadians to get vaccinated, 12% intend to vote New Blue.
Political Alignment and Values
Support for New Blue is highest among voters without any political affiliation and voters who like Doug Ford but do not identify as PC.
New Blue supporters are more likely to agree that neither the Tories nor the Liberals are committed to making necessary changes in the province. Among those who agree with this statement, 6% support New Blue; among those who disagree, 3% support New Blue.
New Blue supporters are also more likely to agree that most things would run pretty well by themselves if the government just didn’t interfere, that everything is changing too fast today, and that governments care more about special interests than they do about the average person.
Summary
A small segment of voters say they will vote New Blue on June 2. It is not clear that New Blue’s gains will be the PC’s losses. The coalition is more than just disaffected PC voters. Dislike of COVID-19 restrictions for voters of all parties and from the unaligned appears to be the unifying issue for New Blue supporters.
