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Liberal Momentum Advantage Narrows

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  • Liberal Momentum Advantage Narrows
April 3, 2025

Image Credits: Free Malaysia Today

The Conservatives have narrowed the gap with the Liberals in media reach and impact, though they still trail in net favourability (-2 to +7). Both leaders have messages cutting through – Carney’s stances on tariffs (Net score of +49) and eliminating the carbon tax (+36), and Poilievre on lowering taxes (+40).

These are the topline findings of an online survey of 1,742 Canadian citizens sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group Inc. (INNOVATIVE) between March 26th and March 31st, 2025.

Carney and the Liberals continue to lead on campaign momentum measures:

  • Carney and Liberals have maintained the highest level of awareness, although it has slipped 4 points since the last wave.
  • The Liberals have maintained a positive net impact score (+7), in contrast to Conservatives, whose net favourability is still negative (-2). However, the Liberal campaign impact has dropped since the last wave by 11 points (from 18 to 7 points).
  • Carney’s top mentions were his stance on tariffs (Net score of +49) and eliminating carbon tax (+36), However, unlike last week, a negative mention made it into the top 4 -his personal assets and potential conflicts of interest (-64).

Poilievre and the CPC closed the gap on campaign momentum this week:

  • Their awareness is up 7 points compared to the last wave (52% this wave vs 45% last wave), and they are now only 4 points behind the Liberals on awareness.
  • Not only did more people hear about the CPC, but more people also liked what they heard. The Liberal advantage on campaign impact dropped from a 26-point lead last week to 9 points this week.
  • Poilievre’s top two mentions were both positive this week – lower taxes (+40) and general campaign mentions (+35). However, comments that Poilievre is like Trump came third with -79 impact score.

The NDP saw awareness jump from 17% to 31% in just a week. The top mention for the NDP were mentions of their ads and overall campaign with a +8.

The Bloc is still struggling to gain attention with just 21% awareness. However, they have the most positive impact score of +23. Comments on Carney and the Liberals and comments about prioritizing Quebec interests and sovereignty top the lost of mentions.

Click here to read the full report! 

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Carmen Hui

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      As someone passionate about the future of our society, Carmen worked with the BC Council for International Cooperation (BCCIC) on a data visualization project centred on sustainability. Her involvement included researching and mapping organizations worldwide that tackle pressing global issues like poverty, inequality, climate change.

      Carmen holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Simon Fraser University. In her leisure time, Carmen enjoys spending time with her family and friends, trying new foods and experimenting with new recipes.

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      Olga received a BSc in Psychology from the National University of Mexico, an MSc in Neuroscience from the University of Tuebingen, and a PhD in Neural and Behavioural Sciences from Rutgers University. Her doctoral thesis focused on how emotions affect decision making and brain function.

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        Susan studied sociology and Political Science at Bishop’s University in Lennoxville, Quebec.

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      As a former Principal Secretary, Greg has built a career at the intersection of public policy, communications and public opinion. With over 30 years of communications and opinion research experience, Greg uses a full range of research tools for a variety of government and corporate clients across industries such as financial services, healthcare and the energy and infrastructure sector. 

      Greg’s research has been highlighted in media across the country.  He has been featured in many media outlets including Global TV, the Globe and Mail, the Hill Times, the National Post and various other PostMedia Network newspapers. In 2016, Greg received the Public Affairs Association of Canada Award of Distinction.  

      Greg has a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of British Columbia and has taken courses in data analyses, research methodologies, and management from Essex University, York University, and Harvard University.

      When away from his desk, Greg can be found travelling between British Columbia, Ontario, and England to spend time with his wife and daughters.