The topline shifts in voter preferences are clear for all to see. But the threat to the CPC and NDP is more clear when we see which groups have been moving.
This is additional analysis of an online survey of 1,548 Canadian citizens sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) between March 19th and 21st, 2025. The topline results were released on Friday, March 21st, 2025 Liberals take Lead on Election Eve – Innovative Research Group.
As we shared on Friday, Mark Carney now has a 9-point lead over Poilievre in being perceived as the best Prime Minister and the Liberals a now marginally ahead of the CPC.
What are the groups driving those changes? This analysis focuses on values and party affinity to better understand what may be motivating these changes.
Let’s start with party affinity. Most Canadian’s, especially those most likely to vote, feel closer to one party than the others. The Liberals have picked up vote among Liberal and New Democrat partisans as well as among voters who are Unaligned.
But the big change within partisanship is on best PM. Liberals have gone from 45% best PM for Trudeau in January to 78% for Carney now. New Democrats have gone from 3% for Trudeau to 29% for Carney. Carney is well ahead of Trudeau in all groups except partisan Conservatives.
When we look at values, we see Liberal gains across the board. On vote, the smallest Liberal gain is 6 points among populist Conservatives since December. In every other value segment, the Liberal vote is up at least 9 points.
Again, the gains are even more dramatic on leadership. Even among the two clusters most supportive of Poilievre, Carney is 13 points higher than Trudeau among Pay-as-you-go Moderates and is 12 points higher among Populist Conservatives. Carney is ahead of Poilievre in every other cluster, including 9 points ahead of Poilievre among Deferential Conservatives.
Looking at the big picture, we see the Liberals cementing their base and expanding their coalition. The Conservatives are in retreat and remain strong only in pockets. The NDP coalition is shattered. We will take a deeper look at the Bloc/Liberal dynamic as we build a bigger Quebec sample.
Click here to read the full report!
