A new online poll by INNOVATIVE of 834 Canadians conducted from July 15th to 21st, 2021 shows that while the federal Liberals continue to lead on vote, the Conservatives would be more competitive if Stephen Harper were to return as their leader.
Currently, the Liberals hold a 14-point leader over the Conservatives among decided voters (41% vs. 27%), with the NDP trail distantly at 17%. However, when asked how they would vote if Stephen Harper were to return as leader, 32% of decided Canadians say they would vote for the Conservatives (up 5-points) and only 37% say they would vote Liberal (down 4-points). This narrows the gap from 14-points down to only 5.
The Conservatives under Harper pick up 11% of voters who initially said they would vote Liberal, 10% of voters who were initially either undecided or did not plan to vote, and nearly half of voters who would vote for a party not currently represented in the House of Commons (49%). However, with Harper as their leader they lose 4% of their own initial voters to the NDP and 4% of their initial voters to the People’s Party.
While Stephen Harper raises the floor for the Conservatives, he does not raise the ceiling. Under Erin O’Toole, 12% of Canadians say they have the Conservatives as their second choice. Under Stephen Harper, second choice drops to 6%. Under either leader, it would be extremely challenging for the Conservatives to pull ahead of the Liberals as things stand today.
For more details, check our full report here.