A majority of British Columbians agree it is time for a change, but the NDP retains a marginal lead in vote intention.
These are the results of an online survey conducted between September 25 and September 28, 2026, sponsored and conducted by INNOVATIVE RESEARCH GROUP. This survey interviewed n=649 British Columbians aged 18 or older. The results are provincially weighted to n=500. Results are weighted by age, gender, region, education, and self-reported past federal vote to ensure the overall sample’s composition reflects the population, according to Census and election data.
Premier Eby’s abrupt election call is a high-risk, high-reward political decision. Unlike Premier Ford’s Ontario PCs in 2025, the Eby NDP did not have a solid lead in vote intention when he called the election. What they did have was a disjointed BC Conservative opposition whose leader had just resigned. So how has the public responded to this opportunistic election call?
The call itself has had a negative impact on Eby and the NDP.
- One in five British Columbians are open to the NDP but say they are less likely to vote NDP because of the snap election call.
- David Eby has taken a strong hit from the snap election, with his favourables down 7 points from 40% to 33% and his unfavourables up 5 points from 34% to 39%.
- While agreement that it is time for a change remains at 57% after the call, the number who say the NDP is best able to form the government has dropped from 41% to 37%.
While these are not great findings for the NDP, they are not enough to cost them the election.
The KLF summer of turmoil has hurt the Conservative Party.
More than half of respondents agree that “With all the turmoil in the BC Conservatives, I don’t think they can run the government.” That concern extends beyond NDP identifiers – 42% of unaligned respondents and 23% of Conservatives agree.
The impact of the Conservatives’ summer of turmoil can best be seen in the party brands. Both in June and last week, INNOVATIVE asked British Columbians which party was best on seven attributes: health, environment, indigenous issues, housing, jobs, crime, and cost of living. The Conservatives are down on 5 of the 7 items. The NDP is up on all 7 items.
This wave also included a new item on standing up to Donald Trump, on which the NDP holds a 10-point lead.
The Conservatives need to fight back to the numbers we saw in June to make the election more competitive.
Vote Splitting Impacts Both NDP and Conservatives
So far in this election, the NDP and the Conservatives are being impacted at a similar level by competing progressive and centre-right parties. One-in-ten decided voters support the Greens, and 45% of their second choices go to the NDP. One-in-ten decided voters support other third parties, and 36% of their second choices go to the Conservatives.
Among the one-in-ten voting for other third parties.
Looking ahead, the campaign outcome will likely come down to three things:
- Can the Conservatives put the NDP on the defensive and drive up the sense that it is time for a change? Of the issues this survey looked at, crime and the cost of living offer the best opportunity for the Conservatives.
- Can the NDP define the election as safe change versus scary change? More than a quarter of the votes the NDP needs to win are Time-for-a-Change New Democrats. They don’t like the status quo but feel the NDP may be the best of a bad lot. The NDP could use some help holding onto these voters. They will be looking for Conservative candidates who have said scary things in the past or who say new scary things now.
- Who will define Lorne Doerksen? Right now, just over half the electorate doesn’t know what to think about Doerksen. The easiest way to frame the Conservatives is to define their new leader. Doerksen needs to establish himself as the change swing NDP voters are looking for. The NDP need to frame him as scary change.
Looking at the current standings, the NDP holds a narrow 3-point lead across the province. But the NDP holds a wider 8-point lead in the Lower Mainland. The Conservatives must close the gap in suburban Vancouver and the Fraser Valley to overtake the NDP in the seat count.
