Prior to the Tariffs, Canada’s Liberals continue to close the gap with the CPC
Following the Liberal leadership debate, the Liberals (31%) are within seven points of the leading Conservatives (38%) on decided vote. So far there is no sign of a negative impact for Mark Carney over his role in the decision to move Brookfield Asset Management’s head office from Toronto to New York.
These are some of the findings of an online survey of 1,000 Ontarians sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) between February 26th and 28th, 2025.
Since the leadership debate, Mark Carney’s net favourable rating is down marginally from +9% to +7%, but he has maintained a positive image since tracking began in late January.
One-third of our respondents said they were aware of the Liberal leadership debates held on February 24th and 25th, but viewership was low with only 21% of those aware watching both, 10% watching only on Monday and 16% watching only on Tuesday. Half (51%) did not watch.
Those who did watch felt that Chrystia Freeland performed about as expected (net +1% exceeded expectations). Carney, on the other hand, was felt to have underperformed (-7%). Looking at Carney’s performance by party ID, 69% of Liberals felt Carney performed as expected (41%) or better (28%). One-in-five Liberals felt Freeland (19%), Karina Gould (20%) and Frank Baylis (20%) performed better than expected.
Carney was the undisputed winner of the debate among those who watched, with 24% of votes, compared to 13% for Freeland, 9% for Gould, and 7% for Baylis.
When it comes to how Canadians feel about issues south of the border, fear over Trump’s Presidency remains high at 61%. While overall fewer Canadians are following news about the relationship between Canada and the US, most (71%) are still paying attention, with a marginal increase in intensity (33% following “very closely” compared to 30% a week ago).
More Canadians approve than disapprove of how the Federal Government is responding to issues resulting from Trump’s presidency, resulting in a net approval rating of +16%. This is down from a high of +34% at the beginning of February when delays in tariffs were announced. Canadians are not as happy with how Pierre Poilievre is dealing with Trump, giving him a net approval of only +3%.
A solid majority (80%) of Canadians are concerned about Trump imposing tariffs on Canadian imports to the US, although this is down marginally from 83% three weeks ago.
Whether Canadians feel Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre is best equipped to handle Canada-US relations depends on how they feel about Trump being president. Poilievre is favoured by those who are either excited or a mix of excited and afraid, whereas Carney is preferred by those who are afraid. Chrystia Freeland does not fare as well when pitted against Poilievre, having only a slight advantage over Poilievre among those who are afraid.
Overall, the numbers have been pretty stable since the start of February. Now that we are dealing with the consequences of actual tariffs, we will be looking to see if Canadians re-assess their views of Canada’s governments and their political leaders.
Click here to read the full report!
