After a tumultuous, negative and generally unsatisfying election, the two main parties are limping to a photo-finish. Although it is too close to make a big bet or take odds, all evidence we see points to a Liberal victory on Monday night.
The Liberals leading the CPC by two to four points in two separate polls (see below) conducted from October 15th to 18th. We do see some indications that turnout favours the CPC, particularly among people who have already voted. But this turnout advantage is not sufficient to overcome the Liberal advantage in vote distribution.
Both polls agree the Liberals hold a significant lead in Ontario which is the critical factor in assessing a likely win for the Liberals.
Click the links below to view the two polls mentioned above: