While the overall national horserace numbers look pretty stable, there are some important underlying dynamics that are shifting. Both the NDP and the Bloc’s numbers are moving, but the Bloc movement has bigger implications for the outcome so far. The Bloc is now clearly second in the race. And because the Liberals pile up votes on the Island of Montreal, the Bloc is now in a head to head battle with the Liberals for the Montreal suburbs and the regions outside Montreal and the Quebec City/Beauce region. The Bloc is closing the gap with the Conservatives in that region as well.
The NDP are up two points, but they are not yet growing in the seats they need to grow in order to translate Jagmeet Singh’s unquestioned momentum into more seats. What they have done is dramatically increased their share of second-choice support. They need to knock those voters loose from their first-choice or they will simply have a moral victory. Meanwhile, in the Liberal-CPC slugfest, the Liberals are losing some ground, but nowhere near the level of losses that would see the Conservatives move ahead.
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