While the federal government rode the latest trump tariff showdown to a new high in approval, that good fortune did not rub off on Mark Carney. In fact, it was the CPC who gained ground in the week leading up to the Liberal party leadership.
These are the findings of the latest online survey sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group among 1,695 Canadian citizens.
Justin Trudeau ended his time as Prime Minister with a good week.
As the second Trump tariff deadline came and passed, more Canadians followed the issue more closely and grew even more afraid of Trump. Federal government approval on how they are responding to Trump jumped 15 points to 56%. Trudeau registered a 5-point gain in net favourables for a total gain of 13-points since the end of January. Time for a change continues to decline, and now stands at 66% compared to 73% in December and January.
Pierre Poilievre and CPC had a mixed week.
They only managed to eke a marginal increase to +5 in net approval on how they are responding to Trump. But Poilievre’s net favourables rose from -9 to -4 and the CPC decided vote grew from 38% to 41%. This is the first positive move on either number for 4 weeks.
Mark Carney had a bad week.
Mark Carney saw a 16-point lead over Pierre Poilievre wiped out in one week as he dropped from +7 to -3 in the wake of the controversy over Mark Carney’s role as Chair of Brookfield Asset Management in the decision to move its headquarters from Canada to the US. After Poilievre’s gains noted above, just 1 point separates the two leaders. And while the two remain close on who is best equipped to handle Canada-Us relations, Carney’s 2-point lead last week is now a Poilievre’s 3-point lead this week. In a strong twist, Carney has gained among people excited about Trump while Poilievre is up among those who are more afraid of Trump.
Looking ahead
It is not easy for a new leader to successfully stem the bleeding of a long-in-the-tooth incumbent. It is clear Carney has paid a political price for his leadership debate stumble. But the Conservative’s are far from out of the woods. Will Carney learn and grow from his first big political mistake? Will he benefit from the excitement of a new Prime Minister and from further rally-around-the-flag moments courtesy of US President Donald Trump? INNOVATIVE is already back in the field to find out.
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