Following an active political summer, there is a lot of new information for Ontario political observers to consider. Not only do we have new polling results where voters tell us what they would do in theory, we have five by-election results where we can see what voters actually did in practice.
Parties count seats, not votes. This may seem counter-intuitive coming from a pollster, but the reality is what counts on election night is not whether you have more votes than the other parties across the province, but whether you can get a plurality of votes in a majority of seats. This is what pundits mean when they talk about distribution. While it doesn’t happen often, it is possible to win an election with fewer voters than your main competitor.