The resignation of Patrick Brown under the cloud of alleged sexual misconduct rocked Ontario politics to its foundations last week.
Or did it?
INNOVATIVE conducted a series of surveys, starting with a live caller RDD survey of Ontarians, using a mix of landlines and cell numbers earlier in January. Phone surveys have the advantage that they permit the use of margins of error to project the results to the broader population. Using live callers ensures a higher response rate than typical IVR surveys. Because of their higher reliability, INNOVATIVE uses phone surveys for most of its horserace projections.
At the same time, INNOVATIVE also conducted an online survey. Online surveys allow for a deeper dive into party and leader brands and their underlying dynamics.
Because online samples cannot be randomly recruited, we usually do not use them to project horserace results. However, since whatever biases that exist in online samples are consistent over time, they are a reasonable tool to explore trends. With that in mind, INNOVATIVE conducted a second online poll over the weekend to see what the impact of the Brown controversy has been.
Most respondents (92%) have heard something about the allegations regarding Patrick Brown and his resignation, although only 25% say they are following the news very closely. Voters who score high on a feminism scale are more likely to be following the news than those scoring low on the same scale.
More respondents (41%) approve of the way the PC party responded to these allegations than disapprove of it (20%), with the PC base being more likely both to approve and disapprove of the PC party’s actions than the average Ontarian. Strong feminists tend to be more approving, non-feminists tend to be more disapproving than the average voter.
Most Ontarians (75%) say this sort of situation is equally likely to happen in any party. People outside of the PC camp are most likely to say these events are more likely to occur in the PC party, particularly NDP identifiers (23%). Feminists in all value clusters believe these events are more likely to occur in the PC party.
Roughly one in 20 voters (6%) say they have decided they will definitely not vote PC because of the Brown controversy. Most of these people identify with another party. However, 15% of the more feminist conservative value clusters say they have definitely decided not to vote PC as a result of this event.
Another one in thirteen (8%) say they are still open to the PCs but are less likely to vote for them. These are disproportionately PC battleground voters – voters who are weakly supporting the PCs, completely undecided, or open to switching to the PCs.
The overall vote is marginally up overall. The increase is actually among women, but the change is not significantly different from the previous wave. Looking at value groups, the vote is slightly down among more feminist conservatives but up among more feminist liberals. Within partisans, the PCs are down among PC identifiers and the small group of Green or other identifiers, but up among the unaligned.
Party identification, the political equivalent of brand, is up marginally (3 points) from earlier in January.
All party attributes are also up with “best on economy” and “best on delivering results for people like you” by significant amounts.
The Liberal vote is essentially flat compared to immediately prior to the Brown scandal, as is their party ID.
There is some improvement in their party attributes scores. This is important for the Liberals because it reduces the risk of decline that was present earlier in the month.
The Liberals might have hoped that when Ontarians compare their government and their Premier to the alternative, now that their primary alternative is facing disarray, they might have improved. The results do not show that.
Impressions of Kathleen Wynne are more intensively negative at the end of the month (50% very unfavourable) than they were earlier (44% very unfavourable).
The number who strongly agree it is time for a change has grown from 40% to 48%.
The number who strongly disagree that the Liberals may have their problems, but they are still best to form government has grown from 31% strongly disagree to 38% strongly disagree.
If anyone can be said to have won in this controversy, it is the NDP.
The NDP vote is up 4 points. This is a statistically significant change.
The NDP party ID is up 2 points. Not a significant gain but encouraging for the New Democrats.
The NDP scores on party attributes have also generally improved in a similar range.
More importantly, while 49% of the electorate agree the election is a two-horse race between the Liberals and the PCs, the same number also agree that given the problems with the PCs and Liberals, “I am interested in hearing what the NDP has to offer.”
The fundamentals of Ontario politics as we enter February look very similar to the fundamentals we saw entering January. Ontarians are very angry with Kathleen Wynne’s government, and the Ontario PCs are leading as her replacement. The two key shifts over the month are Tory problems with more feminist voters who are open to them, and a slight improvement in NDP fortunes. The wild card is the PC leadership which we will look at next.
Telephone survey: This survey was conducted by telephone among 670 randomly-selected Ontario residents, 18 years of age and older, from January 10th to January 16th, 2018.
Only one respondent per household was eligible to complete this survey. The final sample includes both landline and cell phone respondents, so that individuals who don’t have a landline are represented. Numbers are dialed from RDD sample. A maximum of 8 calls are attempted on each phone number. Screening questions are used to ensure that respondents do not work in market research, politics, or the media, and in the case of cell phone respondents are not driving at the time of the call.
The sample has been weighted to n=600 by age, gender and region using the latest available Census data to reflect the actual demographic composition of the population. The margin of error for a sample of n=600 is +4.0% 19 times out of 20. Margins of error will be larger for sub-samples.
Online surveys: These findings are from two Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) polls conducted from January 11th to January 17th, 2018 (Wave 1), and January 26th to 29th, 2018 (Wave 2), respectively.
The online surveys of 1,040 (W1) and 1,027 (W2) adult Ontarians were conducted on INNOVATIVE’s Canada 20/20 national research panel with additional sample from Survey Sampling International, a leading provider of online sample. The Wave 1 Ontario sample is drawn from a Canada wide survey of N=2,315 conducted on the same dates. The Canada 20/20 Panel is recruited from a wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, and region characteristics of the country as a whole.
Both samples are weighted to n=1,000 by age, gender, and region of the province based on the latest Statistics Canada census data.
This is a representative sample. We have set targets to ensure we properly reflect key regional and demographic distribution and then used weights to ensure we reflect the country properly. However, since the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error can not be calculated. The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association prohibits statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates with regard to most online panels.
Detailed tables: For all surveys, complete results as well as additional methodological details, are available in the full report.
Carmen is a Consultant at Innovative Research Group, where her expertise lies in quantitative research methods and data analysis. She contributes to numerous quantitative research projects at INNOVATIVE and lends support to the company’s qualitative research efforts. Her work plays a pivotal role in providing insights to clients navigating a wide spectrum of challenges, ranging from communications to branding.
Prior to joining INNOVATIVE, Carmen conducted an in-depth study on the response countries around the world took to the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, she focused on understanding the relationship between COVID-19 mortality rates and factors such as healthcare accessibility, economic performance, and the broader political landscape.
As someone passionate about the future of our society, Carmen worked with the BC Council for International Cooperation (BCCIC) on a data visualization project centred on sustainability. Her involvement included researching and mapping organizations worldwide that tackle pressing global issues like poverty, inequality, climate change.
Carmen holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Simon Fraser University. In her leisure time, Carmen enjoys spending time with her family and friends, trying new foods and experimenting with new recipes.
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As Director of IT Strategy and Innovation at INNOVATIVE, Raymond is responsible for developing and maintaining software solutions for all our qualitative and quantitative research projects. He also maintains, researches and implements information technology and strategic solutions for all our technological operations.
With over 10 years of experience in the industry and armed with a background in software development, Raymond brings a professional and reliable presence to our team. Raymond is always delving into new technologies and advancements and researching the latest trends in software applications and data management.
Raymond graduated from the Computer Systems Technology program at British Columbia Institute for Technology (BCIT) and has completed the 3D and Classical Animation programs at Vancouver Film School.
When time permits, Raymond can be found on the golf course or on the ski hills. He also enjoys good food and is an avid home chef and baker.
As a Consultant at Innovative Research Group, Cherry provides comprehensive support by preparing, analyzing, and visually representing quantitative and qualitative data to offer valuable insights for both internal and client projects.
Before joining INNOVATIVE, Cherry honed her skills in statistical methods and tools such as R, Python, and SQL during her time as a graduate student at the University of British Columbia, where she led multiple academic projects, including one analyzing the factors contributing to traffic accidents in New York. Additionally, she gained valuable experience in project management and healthcare research projects at Ipsos prior to pursuing her graduate education.
Cherry enjoys playing badminton during the winter and going hiking during the summer. She is on her journey to explore as many board games as she can.
Mesgna is a Research Analyst at INNOVATIVE, where he has supported a variety of projects through survey design, report development, data visualization, recruitment logistics, and project management for internal and client projects.
Before joining INNOVATIVE, Mesgna obtained a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the Sauder School of Business, specializing in marketing with a concentration in business analytics. During his degree, he held previous positions as a research analyst where he gained experience conducting executive interviews for a research platform focused on advancing equity, diversity, and inclusion in finance. He also created pitch decks and organized data to support the platform’s development.
At INNOVATIVE, Mesgna has managed the logistics and reported on many qualitative projects. He prepared customer satisfaction reports for various organizations, focusing on metrics such as pricing, transmission, and energy. Additionally, he is the project lead for a recurring tracking report where he is responsible for managing the analysis, reporting, and client relations.
In his free time, Mesgna is a big fan of stand-up comedy and enjoys going to shows. He also enjoys training Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and playing pick-up basketball on the weekends.
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Raney is a Consultant at INNOVATIVE, based out of the Vancouver office. Raney manages and supports quantitative and qualitative research projects for clients in Western Canada and across the country.
Raney first joined Innovative while completing her degree at the University of British Columbia. After graduating with high distinction from UBC’s political science program, Raney began working full-time at Innovative in 2023.
Before joining Innovative, Raney worked on the Global News Decision Desk during the 2021 Canadian Federal Election and as a Youth Program Facilitator at Archway Community Services in Abbotsford, where she worked to support young immigrants to Canada.
When Raney isn’t working, you can often find her hiking in the North Shore Mountains, reading, or busy knitting a sweater while watching her favourite TV shows.
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Martha is a Senior Consultant at Innovative Research Group, who helps with providing insights in a variety of projects as well as working with quantitative and qualitative data.
Before coming to Innovative, she was a Program Evaluator & Research Assistant, who created a baseline research project for the organization that focused on obtaining feedback from clients through interviews and surveys. During her time at Ryerson, she was a Sociology Statistics Peer Mentor, where she supported students in learning statistics and resolved students’ technical difficulties with the statistical software of SPSS.
Martha has a Bachelor of Arts degree in Sociology with a minor in Psychology from Ryerson University, and an Ontario College Graduate Certificate from Humber College’s Research Analyst Program.
During her downtime, Martha is spending time with family or going on walks. As well, she tries to keep up with her favourite hockey and football teams.
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Max is a Senior Consultant at Innovative Research Group, providing insights on client projects through statistical analysis and working with quantitative and qualitative data.
Prior to joining INNOVATIVE, Max was a grant writer for non-profits, writing and managing grants and funded projects at organizations making change in British Columbia, Canada, and Colorado, USA. As part of a team, Max spearheaded the monitoring and evaluation process for a Vancouver non-profit doing an international development and capacity-building project. Additionally, Max was a campaign staffer for Erin Bennett’s 2016 run for Colorado State Senate in District 31, and a volunteer for Biden for President, doing outreach during the 2020 US Presidential Election.
Max has a Bachelor of Arts from McGill University and a master’s in public policy from Simon Fraser University.
To relax, Max likes watching TV and movies, reading historical fiction, and floating lazily on lakes.
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Alison is a Consultant at Innovative Research Group, where she provides quantitative and qualitative support through statistical analysis across the full range of industries that INNOVATIVE serves.
Before coming to INNOVATIVE, Alison was already an experienced marketing specialist. Alison maximizes insights for decision-makers through comprehensive insights drawn from analyzing primary data, interviews, focus groups, and crafting compelling market analysis.
During her time at the University of Toronto, Alison mastered various statistical methods and tools (R and SAS) through leading numerous academic projects and using those tools to extract meaningful insights from data. At INNOVATIVE, Alison is using her expertise in analysis and data visualization to facilitate the entire research process, including creating custom reports and presentations.
Alison holds a Bachelor of Science degree in mathematics and statistics from the University of Toronto, and a Master of Applied Analytics degree from the University of Melbourne.
In her spare time, Alison enjoys travelling and spending time with her family and friends.
Matthew is a Consultant at INNOVATIVE, supporting a variety of projects through survey design and data visualization to produce actionable insights for clients.
Before joining INNOVATIVE, Matthew earned a graduate degree from Queen’s University. While studying international relations, he used qualitative research to compare perspectives on international disputes from across the academic field. Matthew’s most recent research involved a multidisciplinary analysis of intra-alliance disputes, specifically the 2021 AUKUS incident between the United States and France.
Matthew holds a master’s degree in political studies from Queen’s University, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Wilfrid Laurier University.
At INNOVATIVE, Matthew continues to develop his skills in analysis and methodology, always striving to deliver clear and applicable findings. Balancing function with design, he excels at distilling challenging concepts into intuitive and visually appealing reports. Looking ahead, Matthew is excited to continue to work closely with clients and develop into a key project stakeholder.
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Giorgi is a Senior Consultant at Innovative Research Group, providing insights on internal and client projects through preparation, statistical analysis, and visualization of quantitative and qualitative data.
Before joining INNOVATIVE, Giorgi was a graduate student at Yale University, where he worked with quantitative research methods to understand the political and social psychological roots of failed democratic transitions in post-communist Europe. His most recent academic research focused on the role of public opinion in Hungary’s democratic backsliding under Viktor Orbán.
At INNOVATIVE, Giorgi brings extensive knowledge in survey design, descriptive and inferential statistics, multivariate analysis, and statistical programming to facilitate all stages of the research process. He is committed to leveraging data and analytics to gain insights into the complex challenges facing social scientists and help shape a more informed and impactful future.
Giorgi holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and Political Science from the University of Toronto and a Master of Arts degree in European and Russian Studies from Yale University.
In his free time, Giorgi practices Brazilian jiu jitsu and enjoys playing the didgeridoo, one of the oldest wind instruments.
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Colin is a Vice President at Innovative overseeing the Vancouver team with extensive experience in quantitative research methods, communications research, and data visualization. In over 10 years at Innovative, Colin has designed and executed public opinion research for many of Western Canada’s largest crown corporations, utilities, energy companies, and financial regulators.
Colin has more than 15 years of experience working on academic and professional research teams; and has been at Innovative since 2014. Colin’s approach to research focuses on careful research designs that help clients understand not just correlation but cause and effect.
Colin completed an MA in Political Science at the University of British Columbia. Prior to joining Innovative, Colin taught quantitative research methods at Simon Fraser University.
In his downtime, Colin is likely to be cooking for friends and family or hiking on the North Shore mountains.
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As Vice President of Operations, Dan is responsible for all aspects of finance and operations at Innovative. Dan leads our efforts to bring our projects to market and ensure they are deployed and operated at scale.
Dan’s wealth of knowledge in operations stems from years of experience working with various levels of government, not-for-profit, and private sector entities by providing advice on strategic planning and organizational management. With 13 years of market research operating experience, Dan has deep expertise in research deployment, business development, and operational strategy.
In his spare time Dan plays in 2-3 hockey leagues, depending on the season. In the summer months, he heads north with his kayak.
Vanna is a director with Innovative involved in a variety of projects, providing both quantitative and qualitative support with expertise in data visualization, analyzing text-as-data, data modeling, and survey experiment design.
Before coming to Innovative, Vanna was part of an academic research group focused on public opinion, political behaviour, and the social psychological roots and consequences of political polarization and identity politics. Going forward, she is focused on continuing to develop and apply her analytical and data visualization skills to a wide variety of projects, providing meaningful insights presented in an accessible and compelling way.
Vanna has a Bachelor of Arts (Hons) degree in Political Science and Gender Studies along with a Master of Arts degree in Political Science from Simon Fraser University. Her most recent academic research has focused on the heterogenous effects of candidate gender on negative and attack-style online campaign communications during elections.
As a fiber artist with a special interest in non-conventional and sustainable materials, outside of the office Vanna can be found crocheting, sewing reusable household items, or spending time with her many nieces and nephews.
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Cliff is the Vice President of Data Management and IT at Innovative. Since 2005, Cliff has overseen all technical aspects of Innovative’s operations from field preparation, to data collection, quality assurance, and managing Innovative’s ongoing national online panel.
In order to provide clients with quality and accuracy in our research and analysis, there are a set of strict procedures in place to ensure data integrity. Cliff manages Innovative’s strict regimen for data cleaning, data analysis, and data presentation operations, which ensures precise results for clients. He has proudly done this for the past 15 years. Cliff has a Bachelor’s in Business Administration, along with diplomas in Business Management and Architecture.
Cliff enjoys family activities with his wife, two adorable daughters and dog. He enjoys riding motorcycles, which he has done for over 30 years, and has shared his knowledge and experience as a motorcycle instructor for several years.
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Vanessa is a Director at INNOVATIVE, delivering for clients across the full range of industries that INNOVATIVE serves. The projects she works on cover a variety of topics from measuring public support and opposition, to public engagement, brand/concept testing, and evaluating corporate reputation. Vanessa is also experienced in managing qualitative research studies, from moderating focus groups, to conducting one-on-one interviews with senior executives and government officials.
Fluent in Mandarin and Cantonese, she brings her background in Chinese language research to bear, leading Innovative’s multicultural research projects across Canada. Vanessa has worked closely with clients on projects that target Chinese Canadians. Her research with this population has been featured in CBC News, Global News, and all major Chinese media outlets, including Sing Tao, Ming Pao, Fairchild TV, and OMNI TV News.
Vanessa is a member of the International Association of Business Communication (IABC). She has a Master of Arts in Communication from Simon Fraser University, a Master of Arts in Communication from Communication University of China in Beijing, and holds a Bachelor of Social Science in Government and Public Administration from the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
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As one of Innovative’s Data Management and IT Technicians, Adam works closely with project leads and their research teams to build polished, custom surveys and online workbooks, optimized for user experience.
For over 10 years, Adam has been instrumental in putting the strategy and systems in place behind the scenes that allow research teams and diverse clients to thrive. His IT expertise comes from a fascination with technology – how it works and how it can be applied to make our lives easier. As a result, Adam always delivers out-of-the-box approaches and solutions that exceed client expectations.
During the weekend, you’ll likely find him at a film festival or out to dinner at one of his favourite restaurants.
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Olga Rodriguez Sierra is a Director at Innovative where she works with a wide range of clients in the energy, sustainability, and finance sector. She is passionate about translating knowledge from basic academic research to actionable insights for real world problems. As a behavioural science practitioner, she applies a behavioural lens to build strategy and evidence-based approaches to diagnose and overcome barriers to enable behaviour change in all her projects.
Her more than 15 years of professional experience has taken her to Canada, the United States, Latin America, and Europe, where she has engaged with interdisciplinary teams in the design, execution, and evaluation of research programs and policies. With her extensive knowledge of judgement and decision-making, Olga is the in-house behavioural economics expert.
Olga received a BSc in Psychology from the National University of Mexico, an MSc in Neuroscience from the University of Tuebingen, and a PhD in Neural and Behavioural Sciences from Rutgers University. Her doctoral thesis focused on how emotions affect decision making and brain function.
In her spare time, Olga enjoys reading novels, traveling, and being outside in nature.
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Julian Garas is a Vice President at Innovative where he manages multi-dimensional strategic research programs for government, not-for-profit and private sector clients, with emphasis on regulated industries.
Julian is also Innovative’s in-house Ontario energy regulatory affairs expert. Building on his experience working with a wide variety of Ontario LDCs (small, medium and large), Julian leads Innovative’s customer engagement thought leadership and is an integral part of all customer engagement programs. His comprehensive knowledge of all OEB decisions under the RRFE comes from years of working with clients from the first strategic planning session all the way to post-rate filing.
Julian has a postgraduate degree in Government Relations and Corporate Communications from Seneca College and Bachelor of Arts in Contemporary Studies (Honours) from Ryerson University. He is a news and politics junkie with an appetite for staying up to date with the latest policy debates, pop culture and sports.
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Susan is a Vice President at Innovative and works with clients across a variety of sectors. On any given day, Susan is managing multiple projects using various methodologies, responsible for everything from survey design right through to providing insightful strategic advice. Clients rely on Susan for excellent project management that is grounded in twenty-plus years of research experience.
Having worked in the research field since 1995, Susan has a unique depth and breadth of experience and expertise that ensure clients achieve their research objectives. While working in Australia, Susan was awarded a highly respected customer service award by a large international corporation. She enjoys the creative aspects of designing and facilitating research programs to meet complex and unique client needs.
Susan studied sociology and Political Science at Bishop’s University in Lennoxville, Quebec.
When not working, Susan enjoys travelling, playing golf and tennis, and running an Airbnb.
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Greg is the founder and President of Innovative Research Group. As its founder, Greg leads Innovative’s mission to evolve market research practices by transforming the latest developments in academia into proprietary models that deliver actionable insights. As President, Greg oversees Innovative’s methodical best practices and acts as the Lead Methodologist on projects across the organization.
As a former Principal Secretary, Greg has built a career at the intersection of public policy, communications and public opinion. With over 30 years of communications and opinion research experience, Greg uses a full range of research tools for a variety of government and corporate clients across industries such as financial services, healthcare and the energy and infrastructure sector.
Greg’s research has been highlighted in media across the country. He has been featured in many media outlets including Global TV, the Globe and Mail, the Hill Times, the National Post and various other PostMedia Network newspapers. In 2016, Greg received the Public Affairs Association of Canada Award of Distinction.
Greg has a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of British Columbia and has taken courses in data analyses, research methodologies, and management from Essex University, York University, and Harvard University.
When away from his desk, Greg can be found travelling between British Columbia, Ontario, and England to spend time with his wife and daughters.
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Jason is a Vice President at Innovative, specialising in research across complex, highly regulated industries. Jason’s quantitative experience covers a wide array of analytical techniques from multivariate and time-series analysis to market modeling and sample design. On the qualitative side, Jason is an experienced interviewer and focus group moderator.
For over 15 years, Jason has been a sought-out advisor on regulatory issues, customer engagement programs, and customer satisfaction benchmarking. He has a unique ability to distill information about complex and heavily regulated industries into engagement programs that capture informed insights from consumers and the broader public.
Jason has a Bachelor of Commerce degree and a Master of Science degree in Managerial Economics, both from Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario.
When he’s not at work, Jason enjoys exploring Ontario’s wine country and wines.