The Progressive Conservatives have a commanding 12-point lead over the Liberals in INNOVATIVE’s latest telephone survey of 602 Ontario residents weighted to n=600, conducted from May 17 to May 27, 2022.
Horserace
The Progressive Conservatives sit at 40% of the decided vote, 12 points ahead of the Liberals and 19 points ahead of the NDP. The PCs have made a steady recovery over the past six months. The Liberals briefly led in late 2021.
Party ID
While they maintain an edge over the Tories on party identification, the Liberals have not excited voters in this campaign. Not only are the Liberals struggling to persuade non-Liberal identifiers to vote Liberal, they are struggling to rally their own base. Just 61% of Liberal identifiers plan to vote Liberal.
The PCs are overperforming relative to party ID, and their core voters remain highly engaged. Among PC identifiers, 85% plan to vote PC.
The NDP are also overperforming relative to party ID, but have not rallied their base as effectively as the PCs. Among NDP identifiers, 69% plan to vote NDP.
The PCs also remain the most popular choice among voters who do not identify with the three major parties.
Second Choice
Despite their healthy lead, the PCs are the second choice of just 7% of voters. The NDP are the most popular second choice (25%), followed closely by the Liberals (22%).
Over half who plan to vote Liberal say the NDP is their second choice (56%). Over half who plan to vote NDP say the Liberals are their second choice (56%).
Ontario Mood
Ontarians have not been this pessimistic about the province or the economy since the start of the pandemic.
Almost 3-in-5 say that things in Ontario are on the wrong track (58%), while just over 1-in-3 say things are on the right track (36%). Almost 1-in-3 believe the economy is in poor shape (32%), and another 2-in-5 say it is in only fair shape (39%).
Summary
A souring provincial mood is not enough to seriously damage the Tories’ electoral prospects. The PCs continue to pull away from the Liberals, who are struggling to motivate voters both inside and outside of their base. The NDP are overperforming relative to party ID, but remain firmly in third place. The PCs are well positioned for another majority government.
