In-depth: Federal vote in Ontario

Using a large sample telephone poll (3000 interviews),  this research explores the changes to the Ontario federal politics landscape since the last election in-depth. The results show that the Liberals have risen to 39% in decided vote. We predict this result would win them between 49 and 62 of Ontario’s 121 seats if an election were held today. While these gains are impressive, it is an open question if they will get the party close enough to the 170 seats that will be needed for a majority in the newly redistributed House of Commons. Accompanying this report are a set of interactive maps that show the results of our seat projection models: Click here to view seat projection maps