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Innovative Research Group Inc. (INNOVATIVE) released the findings of 3 election polls today:
The BC Liberals lead the BC NDP in all three polls by between 3 and 7 points in the combined vote (first choice + lean). The race remains too close to call but there is more upside for the BC Liberals than the BC NDP.
In addition to the results from the surveys themselves, INNOVATIVE has used a riding segmentation created by transposing the results of the 2013 and 2009 elections to the new electoral district boundaries to look at the shape of the race in BC’s swing ridings.
Several factors favour the BC Liberals:
It’s not all coming up roses for the Liberals. The NDP have some good news as well.
A key issue in this campaign is vote splitting on the centre left.
With their strong base of “safe” and “likely” seats and their competitive position in swing seats, the Liberals are well positioned for a win at this point in the election. However, an NDP victory is still possible:
A minority with a Green balance of power also can’t be ruled out. The challenge there is they have to do well enough in the south island to win seats without splitting the anti-liberal vote in the rest of the province.BC Results - Breaking