Canada This Month | Political Landscape | July 2019

Looking back on the polls, what do the last three months tell us?

Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing the last three months of our national online federal vote tracking as well as the last two waves of our Ontario telephone federal vote tracking. Overall, the Liberals retain a small national lead. However, that national stability masks important regional shifts.

CTM1907

Where are the shifts?

  • The Liberals have regained the lead in BC, but the race remains close
  • While the Liberals retain a significant lead in Quebec, the CPC has been growing and they appear to gain in second choice appeal among Bloc voters
  • The Liberals are sustaining their leads in Atlantic and Ontario
  • The CPC is holding strong leads in Alberta and the Prairies

The Liberal lead in Ontario varies across our online and telephone polls.

  • Both online and phone polls show the Liberals leading, but the lead is only single-digit in our phone polls.
  • Online polls can include more people with higher education who tend to be more Liberals, but that is not the case – education levels are similar.

For a deeper dive on Canada’s political landscape, fill out the form below to download the full report.


Stay tuned as we will be following up these topline results with a series of detailed analyses in the weeks to come.