The big story in tonight’s election seems clear – Doug Ford’s PCs are headed for another majority government. But while the PCs are likely to win a majority of seats, there is still a high likelihood that many seats will change. The Liberals look like they will poll anywhere from 6 to 9 points higher than 2018 while the NDP are likely to lose as much as 10% of their vote. Let’s look at some key races that will tell us how good or bad a night each party is having. Click here to see the election night cheat sheet!
The PC – Liberal Battle
The main battle in Ontario election is between the Liberals and the PCs. With the Liberals polling better than in 2018, they are likely to take back at least a few of the seats they lost in 2018. While these seats are found all across Ontario, here are some of the central battles.
- Vaughan—Woodbridge is the most important of these seats. Liberal leader Steven Del Duca is running to retake his former seat. It is hard to see Del Duca holding on as leader if he can’t win his own seat.
- All the Mississauga and Markham seats are competitive. The PCs need to win most of them to form government.
- The Ford PCs won all of Etobicoke and most of Scarborough in the last election. Toronto has already been the Liberal base so regaining these seats is critical. Can the Liberals topple Kinga Surma, the Minister of Infrastructure, in Etobicoke Centre? Or Raymond Cho, Minister of Seniors, in Scarborough North?
- Peterborough—Kawartha and Northumberland–Peterborough South are held by the PCs now but were Liberal in 2014.
The Progressive Primary
The biggest question tonight is not who is going to win but who will come second. The NDP start with a lot more seats than the Liberals, but their core is much smaller.
- Center stage of this showdown is the Old City of Toronto. Seats like Toronto—St. Paul’s, University—Rosedale, Spadina—Ford York and Toronto Centre have been Liberal strongholds. The Liberals must regain a significant number of those seats to be on the road to recovery.
- There are also NDP 2018 gains scattered across the province from Kingston to Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Kitchener Centre and London North Centre. The NDP must hold on to most of these to win the battle for Official Opposition.
Potential PC steals from the NDP
The PCs have been aiming to win over “lunch bucket” New Democrats, voters that shower after work and identify as workers, not as bosses.
- In the GTA, the NDP won three Brampton seats and Oshawa. The PCs are well positioned to win most, if not all, of these seats.
- The NDP hold three seats in the Niagara peninsula. St. Catherine’s in particular looks good for a PC steal.
- The NDP hold 6 seats in London and Windsor. Essex is the most likely pick-up, but others could be possible in a good night for the PCs.
- It would take some big swings, but it is worth keeping an eye on the North as an outside shot for some surprises.
Three Way Races
There are several races that could be won by any of three major parties.
- Humber River—Black Creek and York South—Weston are on the border with Etobicoke. The NDP hold both but the PCs were a competitive second while the Liberals held both in 2014.
- Kitchener South—Hespeler and Kitchener—Conestoga were held by the Liberals in 2014 but the NDP and PCs split the ridings in very close 2018 races.
Wildcards
There are three ridings where the Liberals lost candidates after the candidate deadline and so now have no one in the race.
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington is a strong Conservative seat where nothing is likely to change.
- Sault Ste. Marie is currently PC, but the NDP were close in the last election. Liberals tend to have the NDP as their second choice. The riding will likely stay PC, but if PC opponents unite around the NDP candidate, it could be an upset.
- Parry Sound—Muskoka is another strong PC seat, but the Greens got 19% and 20% of the vote in the last two election. Local polling suggest the Liberal vote may be moving Green, setting the stage for another upset.
