An online survey of 1,622 adult Canadians conducted from September 10th to 15th, 2019 shows a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives.
The horserace results show a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the Liberals leading 35% to 32% among decided voters.
Close national numbers hide wide regional gaps. In Ontario and Quebec, the Liberals hold firm leads over the competition.
While this sample shows a narrowing gap in the Prairies, tracking shows the Conservatives consistently ahead of the Liberals with large monthly variance among the small regional sample.
Conservative voters are more sure about their choice. Only 41% say they would like to hear more before making up their mind in this election, the lowest number for any party.
The Conservatives have the largest base. A total of 17% of voters say they would vote for the Conservatives and have heard all they need to hear, compared to just 13% who are core Liberal voters and 6% who are core NDP voters.
Among only voters who have heard all they need to hear, the Conservatives lead over the Liberals 37% to 33%.
In a race this close, voter turnout will be critical in determining the winner. The race is even tighter among voters who say they will definitely vote and those who say they have voted in every election in the past ten years.
The small Liberal lead overall comes from voters who are less certain to show up – voters who are not yet sure if they will vote in this election and voters who have skipped the past election.