How the Mighty Have Fallen
Following Justin Trudeau’s election in 2015, Canada saw its greatest political honeymoon since the last Trudeau became Prime Minister. For the better part of two years, close to half of the country felt Trudeau was best to be Prime Minister. Almost half said they would vote Liberal, 10 points above their election night performance. It was sunny days.
But in politics, friends come and go while enemies accumulate. Those high Trudeau and Liberal numbers were buoyed up by non-Liberals who felt conflicted in providing that support and who were open to new information that would pull them back to their traditional loyalties. The India trip was the first big effort by the Liberals to push voters away. SNC Lavalin was the second.
In the fall of 2018, Justin Trudeau was still seen as best PM by 47% of the electorate. By March 2019, he had dropped to 39%. The bigger problem was his favourable. Dented by the India trip, in the fall of 2018 Trudeau was still liked by 7 percent more Canadians than disliked him. By March 2019, his unfavourable was 19 points higher than his favourable. Trudeau and the Liberals were vulnerable, but still ahead in our polls.
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