A new poll by INNOVATIVE shows Canadians’ declining support for the carbon tax amid the Federal government’s temporary exemption on home heating oil, primarily impacting the Atlantic provinces.
The online poll of 2,634 Canadians was conducted in early November and included a tracking question on support for the carbon tax and additional questions on the carbon tax carve-out, the possibility of an expansion, and the Federal government’s heat pump policy.
While support for a national minimum price for carbon has been higher than opposition for most of our tracking, the gap has narrowed dramatically. At 33%, support is now only marginally ahead of opposition. With the exception of BC, which has grown more ambivalent, all regions have become less supportive of the tax, with the biggest declines occurring in the Atlantic (net support down 12 points to -11%) and Québec (net support down 12 points to +19%). This decline is occurring even among Liberals. While still the most supportive (net support of +36%), Liberals experienced the largest drop (net support down 9 points) of any party.
Canadians have mixed feelings towards the carve-out on home heating oil in Atlantic provinces. Just under half (49%) are familiar with the exemption, while nearly equal shares feel angry (37%) and not angry (40%) in response to the announcement. Conservatives are the most familiar (62%), as well as the angriest (52%). Support is also split, with 27% supportive of the exemption, 28% opposed, and 31% feeling neither. At 34%, Liberals are the most supportive.
While the current exemption may not have especially high support, more than half (55%) are in favour of expanding the exemption to other heating fuels and extending it to other provinces. Support is high across all regions and political groups, with 52% of Liberals and 50% of Core LPC Supporters in support of an expanded exemption.
Respondents were also asked to balance the role of the carbon tax in fighting climate change against affordability.
- Just 10% say the carbon tax is a critical tool and we should not make any exemptions.
- Another 21% say the carbon tax is an important tool but they support the home heating oil carve-out.
- Another 20% say the carbon tax is an important tool but they want additional temporary exemptions
- One third (33%) want the carbon tax abolished.
You can look at this two ways. As a carbon tax advocate, you can say that 51% see the carbon tax as an important tool in the fight against climate, but some of those feel we need a break in these tough times. As a tax break advocate, you can argue that 53% feel the Liberals have not gone far enough and that we should at least extend the exemptions, if not abolish the tax all together.
The current policy mix gives the CPC a majority coalition. But if the Liberals extend the exemption, they can build a coalition of 51% to keep the tax.
Support for the carbon tax is weakening. But if carbon tax defenders will compromise and extend the temporary exemptions, they can save the tax. If they stick with the current status quo, they will be handing the CPC a powerful wedge issue.
