Once again, a Trump tariff deadline has given the Liberals a boost, this time driving into a clear 6-point lead over the Conservatives.
These are the topline findings of an online survey of 1,341 Canadian citizens sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group Inc. (INNOVATIVE) between April 3rd and April 7th, 2025. Results are weighted by age, gender, region, education, and self-reported federal past vote to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census data
As in the two previous tariff deadlines, the federal government has once again broken 50% approval on responding to Trump (52% this week).
Canadians split on whether to approve (30%) or disapprove (27%) of Poilievre and the CPC response to Trump, with many uncertain.
The tariff deadline pulled attention away from the campaign as voters report lower awareness for the CPC (down 6-points), the Liberals (down 5-points) and the NDP (down 2-points). The Bloc continues to report the lowest awareness (22%) but are up marginally by 1%.
The impact of the campaign debate continues to favour the Liberals. The Liberal momentum score is +18 with 46% more favourable and just 28% less favourable. Carney’s stand on Trump and tariffs dominate Liberal mentions with a +48 impact score.
The Conservative read/seen/heard divides Canadians with a score of +2. The most common Conservative mentions are general campaign and media (+13), ads (-20) general negative comments (-54) and trade (+31).
The NDP earned a +7 campaign impact score. The most common mention was comments about the campaign and ads with a +12 impact.
While the Bloc score remains positive +12. That is down from +23 last week. The top mention was putting Quebec and sovereignty first.
The big impact of the tariffs can be seen on the leadership numbers:
- Carney favourables have risen to +15, as Poilievre favourables decline to -7
- Carney leads on best to be PM by nine points. Carney now leads Poilievre as best to be PM in all value clusters other than Populist Conservatives.
- Carney leads Poilievre by 14 points on best equipped to handle Canada-US relations (Carney 45%; Poilievre 31%).
The bottom line is the Liberals have hit a new high of 41% as Conservatives slip to 35%. The vote distribution works well for the Liberals. They have a 30-point lead in the Atlantic, a 14-point lead in Quebec, and a 6-point lead in Ontario. Even in BC they are ahead by a whisker with a 3-point lead. The Conservatives are being isolated in Prairie and rural strongholds while the NDP and Bloc are also in retreat.
Finally, we show a majority of voters who say they have heard all they need to make up their minds, up 5-points this week. While Conservatives have the firmest vote, all three opposition parties now need to knock tentative voters away from the Liberals to stop the Liberals from winning a fourth term.
Click here to read the full report!
