A majority (64%) believe calling an election now is a good idea. However, 15% say they are considering voting for Ford but will be less likely to do so if he calls the election.
These are some of the findings of an Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) survey of 1,500 Ontario adults. The online survey was conducted between January 3rd and 27th, 2025. The two questions featured herein on calling the election were added to the survey on January 23rd and so carry a weighted sample size of 500.
With Ford having announced plans to call an election this week, the INNOVATIVE poll finds that a majority (64%) either strongly (33%) or somewhat (32%) believe an election would be a good idea.
Those who oppose Doug Ford and the PC party (36%) are as likely as Ford/PC supporters (37%) to strongly believe a provincial election would be a good idea. However, 19% of Ford/PC opponents strongly believe an election would be a bad idea.
Looking at Time for Change segments, majorities of all but the Uncertain segment (the least likely to vote) believe an election call now is a good idea. Opposition to calling an election now runs from only 8% among Time for Change Ontarians, to a noteworthy 39% of Core Government Ontarians. They likely see wanting an election as being disloyal to a government they support.
The poll also asked Ontarians how they feel about holding an election while the US is threatening 25% tariff.
- One in five (22%) say they are likely to vote for Ford and the PCs whenever they call the election.
- Another 12% say they are considering voting Ford and will be more likely to do so if he calls an election now.
- Most importantly, 15% say they are considering voting Ford now but will be LESS likely to do so if he calls an election now.
- Just over a third (36%) say they are unlikely to vote for Ford and the PCs whenever they call the election.
It is hard to imagine Ford delaying the election given how strongly he and the PC party are polling.
Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives currently hold a majority (51%) of the decided vote, while the Liberals and NDP lag far behind at 23% and 18%, respectively.
In addition to his party having a virtual stronghold on decided vote, a strong plurality (41%) say Doug Ford would make the best Premier, marking a return to early-COVID levels of support. Bonnie Crombie (16%) and Marit Stiles (11%) lag far behind. Similarly, 44% have a favourable opinion of Ford, compared to 29% for Crombie and 27% for Stiles.
It is clear that Ford’s performance in responding to the Trump tariff threat has helped put the PCs in such a strong lead. Among the half (51%) who report having read, seen or heard something about the Premier in the last few days, two-in-five (42%) say what they’ve read, seen or heard has left them feeling more favourably toward Ford, while only 20% have been left feeling less favourably.
Doug Ford and the PCs are well positioned to earn an even larger majority in February’s election. Calling an election does put 15% of the electorate at risk, but even if the PCs lost everyone of those voters, they would still be able to win the election.
For most of our respondents, the possibility of an election is still a hypothetical issue. While this poll suggests the risk of backlash due to perceptions of opportunism is low, it is still a significant risk today. The question we will be watching over the next days is whether the opposition campaigns can leverage the potential for some initial backlash to build a broader case that Doug Ford no longer represents the change people are looking for.
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