The post-election spike of separatist sentiment in Alberta fades over the month of May, according to INNOVATIVE’s tracking.
These results come from an online poll conducted between May 23rd and June 1st, 2025, of 1,927 Canadian citizens, 18 years or older. This survey was sponsored by INNOVATIVE Research Group Inc. and weighted to n=1,250 based on age, gender, region, education, and self-reported past federal vote to ensure the overall sample reflects the population according to Census data.
The first two waves of May data (May 12th – 22nd) already captured a moderating of separatist sentiment; a result further confirmed with the latest May data (May 23rd – June 1st). The percentage of Albertans who would “definitely vote to leave Canada” continues to drop (post-election 19%, May W1/W2 14% to May W3/W4 12%), closer to pre-election levels (9%). Those responding that they would “definitely vote for my province to stay in Canada” (54%) have returned to pre-election levels (52%).
Outside Alberta, separatist sentiments remain steady with Quebec and Prairies returning to their pre-election levels (pre/post for QC +38/+38, pre/post for Prairies +56/+51 on net agreement to stay in Canada). This data may imply that the initial, emotional, post-election reaction to the Carney-led Liberal victory is giving way to more measured views. We will be watching carefully to see how that changes as the initial grace period for the government comes to an end over the coming months.
