INNOVATIVE’s post-Federal election deep dive reveals a striking increase in separatist attitudes in Alberta following the election, while Quebec sees a smaller increase change.
These results track the change between the two online polls, one conducted post-election, April 28th to April 29th, 2025, of 2,598 Canadians and the other conducted pre-election, April 15th and April 20th, 2025, of 2,311 Canadians. Both surveys were sponsored and conducted by INNOVATIVE Research Group Inc. and weighted to 2,000 by age, gender, region, education, and self-reported past federal vote to ensure the overall sample reflects the population according to Census data.
Q: “There has been growing attention lately in some provinces to the idea of some provinces leaving Canada to become their own countries. If there was a referendum in your province, would you vote (ROTATE) for [PROVINCE] to leave Canada and become its own country or for [PROVINCE] to remain a province within Canada?”
Alberta shows a 20-point net negative shift in the support for staying in Canada following the election. Pre-election, a majority of Albertans (52%) strongly agreed with staying in Canada and only 9% were definitely for independence. Following the election those numbers are 46% definitely stay, and 19% for independence. This post-election uptick signals a growing sense of political frustration in the province that voted heavily for the Conservatives; a reaction to unmet expectations in a year when the majority was ready for a change of the liberal government.
This shift is most pronounced among Conservative voters in Alberta. While the subsamples are relatively small, the pattern is clear. Before the election, Conservative identifiers were more likely to support staying in Canada than separate. After the election, a narrow majority now support separatism to some degree. Many Conservatives appear to be channeling their dissatisfaction with the election outcome and desire for change into an openness to the separatism conversation. Whether this is a lasting realignment or a short-term emotional response is the key question, and a significant development worth watching.
