In our final pre-election survey, the Liberals lead by 4-points over the Conservatives (41% to 37%), with the NDP at 11% and Bloc 6% among Decided voters.
These results are from a survey conducted April 24th to 26th among 1,587 respondents, with results weighted to a final sample of 1,300. See the full report for the detailed methodology.
Liberals winning in key regions
Across the country, the Liberals are leading in the key regions needed to win the election. In Ontario, they lead by 5-points over the Conservatives (45% to 40%, with the NDP a distant 3rd at 8%). They have even larger leads in BC, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, while they appear competitive in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (trailing the Conservatives by only 5-points, though be cautious of small sample sizes in this region).
Liberals are leading despite a strong desire for change
Despite the Liberal lead, agreement remains high that it is “time for a change in government.” 65% of Canadians agree with this sentiment. This is down 8-points from 73% in January, but is higher than the 58% agreement leading into the 2021 election.
However, since January, agreement that “The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government” has risen 13-points to 44%. This is also 8-points higher than it was leading into the 2021 election.
Looking at the intersection of these two attitudes, we see that 2-in-5 Canadians fall into a critical battleground segment who on the one hand feel it is time for a change, but on the other think the Liberals remain the best option to form government.
This election sees twice as many of these conflicted voters as any other recent election.
In addition, these voters are voting Liberal at a higher rate than they did in 2021. Among these conflicted voters 65% say they will vote Liberal in this election, up from 49% in 2021. The double whammy of this segment of voters growing, and then supporting the Liberals at higher rates, combine to boost the Liberal vote share by 8-points among decided voters.
Some explanation for this shift may come from the fact that among this key segment, agreement is high both that Carney is uniquely equipped to lead “at this time” (74% agree) and also that Poilievre talks and acts “too much like Trump” (73% agree).
