INNOVATIVE has combined the Quebec results of the second and third April weeks of our online election tracking in Quebec to follow up on our last analysis of voter dynamics in Quebec. The results are based on online surveys with 1,410 Quebecers conducted between April 10th and April 23rd, 2025, weighted to reflect Census benchmarks.
Mark Carney and the Liberals still lead the Bloc Québécois among decided voters, but the race is tightening. The Liberal lead has dropped to 7 points—half of what it was in early April. Among older voters (55+), a group with historically higher turnout, the two parties are now statistically tied.
The Bloc Québécois has benefitted from the debates and awareness of Yves-François Blanchet’s campaign has improved. Blanchet exceeded expectations in the debates: among the 43% who have read, seen, or heard anything about them, 18 percentage points more thought he did better than worse, compared to 7 points for Carney.
However, the Bloc’s recovery may be ephemeral, as Trump intervened on Canada-US trade relations after we collected this data. We will release our final update over the weekend.
Click here to read the full report!
