The Liberal brand is on the mend. While Conservatives still have a 9-point lead over the Liberals in federal vote intention, the Liberals have reignited passion in their base while reducing negatives in other voter segments.
Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) sponsored and conducted an online survey of 1,784 Canadian adults between February 19th and February 24th, 2025. Based on Census data from Statistics Canada, the results are nationally weighted to n=1,000.
The combination of Justin Trudeau leaving and the federal government’s performance to date in responding to Donald Trump’s tariff threats has resulted in Liberal gains from both the left and the right:
- After holding at 27% for most of February, the Liberals have edged up 3 points and are now at 30%.
- Over the same period, the federal Conservative Party has been trending downward. It lost 4 points and now has 39% of the decided votes.
- Liberal gains mostly come from the NDP and the Bloc.
A deeper dive into the Liberal and Conservative brands show the playing field has shifted. We asked Canadians to assess the impact the Liberals or Conservatives might have on nine key issues if they are elected government. This allows us to understand when issues are close and whether voters are picking the lesser of evils or two strong options. We have done this comparison six times since the last election:
- The Liberals are up across the board on the 7 items we are tracking. This has strengthened the Liberal advantage on climate change and abortion, turned crime and public safety into a toss-up, and narrowed the gap with the Conservatives’ affordability and mobility measures.
- The Conservatives have stable, positive assessments on most issues. They have gained some ground on abortion but lost some on crime and public safety.
- While both parties receive positive scores on the two new Trump measures, the Conservatives are viewed a little more positively than the Liberals.
Leadership numbers remain stable this week. Looking at Carney and Poilievre, Poilievre is better known – only 6% do not know him – and his net favourable score is -6%. In comparison, 20% of Canadians are unfamiliar with Carney, and another 24% are uncertain, but his net favourable score is +9%, giving him a 15-point net advantage over Poilievre.
Fear of Trump’s presidency continues to grow, with 61% of Canadians expressing concern. Assessments of political leaders include:
- Canadians continue to have mixed views of Poilievre and the CPC’s response to issues resulting from Trump’s presidency: 28% of Canadians approve, and 27% disapprove. They still trail Federal government approval.
- Canadians are still more likely to approve (41%) than disapprove (23%) of the Federal approach.
- Provincial approval is generally stable this week with the exception where disapproval is up, potentially as a consequence of the health controversy, and the Atlantic where the weekly sample is very small.
Canadians remain split on whether Carney or Poilievre is best equipped to handle Trump’s renewed presidency. Those more afraid than excited continue to see Carney as more effective than Poilievre. Between Freeland and Poilievre, Canadians generally feel Poilievre is better equipped.
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