For the second consecutive wave, the federal election race is locked in a marginal tie between the Liberals and Conservatives. Liberals continue to hold their vote share, but Conservatives have gained 4 points to reach 38% support nationally. The race has tightened and is likely to change again following this afternoon’s announcements in Washington.
These are the topline findings of an online survey of 1,742 Canadian citizens sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group Inc. (INNOVATIVE) between March 26th and March 31st, 2025.
There is some good news this week for the Conservatives:
- Time for a change remains high and those who feel it is time for a change have grown in intensity.
- Poilievre’s favourables have rebounded and regained last week’s losses.
- The CPC Read/Seen/Heard Impact results are now balanced.
There is positive news for the Liberals as well:
- They are building strong regional leads in Quebec and Atlantic Canada which is important in converting votes to seats.
- They have made BC and Ontario competitive battlegrounds.
- They continue to dominate in the Core Left, squeezing the NDP onto the margins.
- Carney retains a stable net positive image.
The Bloc and the NDP continue struggle as the trade issue focuses the campaign on a Carney vs Poilievre showdown. While the Bloc remains competitive, the NDP is in a struggle for survival.
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