In the final week of the 1980 presidential race, incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter faced off against Republican nominee Ronald Reagan in their only debate. In his closing statement, Reagan asked what has become one of the most important campaign questions of all time: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” This question played an instrumental role in shifting Carter’s opinion poll lead into a major Reagan victory the following weekend.
Our tracking of the crash in Canadians’ satisfaction with their standard of living led us wonder if something similar is happening in Canada today. A new INNOVATIVE poll asked Canadians whether they are better or worse off now than they were in 2015, the year Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister. We find that 41% are worse off now than they were in 2015, while only 25% say that they are better off.
The online poll of 2,248 Canadians was conducted in March by Innovative Research Group. The results are weighted to 1,500 by age, gender, region, and self-reported past federal vote to accurately reflect the population. A detailed methodology is provided in the report.
More people say they are worse off now than they were in 2015, citing the economy, higher cost of living, and affordability as the main reason. Higher inflation and interest rates follow as the second main reason for those who report being worse off. Among the 25% who say they are better off, 1-in-3 cite higher income and/or better job as the main reason, followed by the ability to save more and take on less debt. Interestingly, those who feel they are better off tend to credit personal development, while those who feel worse off cite general issues, like the economy.
The federal government is held more responsible than provincial governments. When asked whether this federal government is making things better or worse for people like them, exactly half say worse, which is higher than the share of those who feel similarly about provincial government performance (38% saying worse off). Again, the economy, higher cost of living, and affordability tops the list of reasons for those who say federal/provincial government is making things worse, consistent across all large provinces.
When it comes to specific provinces, we find that those in Alberta are most satisfied with their government’s performance, although slightly more are still dissatisfied. Satisfaction is the lowest in Québec, where only 13% believe the provincial government is making things better.
To sum up, INNOVATIVE’s new poll presents a sobering reflection on the general and economic sentiment across Canada. With 41% of respondents reporting they are worse off than in 2015, concerns about the economy, cost of living, and affordability loom large. Despite pockets of satisfaction, particularly in Alberta, overall sentiment suggests a significant portion of the population feels left behind.
Looking ahead, we expect affordability to remain a critical issue for years to come. While declining interest rates may help alleviate the problem, only rising real incomes and the availability of more affordable housing are likely to improve the situation.
