Why in the early days of this election is Mark Carney getting a better response from voters than Pierre Poilievre?
These are the topline findings of an online survey of 1,548 Canadian citizens sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) between March 19th and 21st, 2025.
On Friday, we shared that more people are hearing about Mark Carney and the Liberals than Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. We also showed that what people are reading, seeing or hearing leaves them more favourable towards the Liberals (+18) and less favourable to the CPC (-8). Today we look at the impact of the common themes people have heard about.
When we look at the key messages getting through to voters, Mark Carney goes from strength to strength. Carney’s most mentioned news items include his meeting with European leaders (+36), news about him becoming Prime Minister (+22), eliminating the carbon tax (+26), and his stance on Trump and tariffs (+49).
In contrast, Poilievre’s media presence is dominated by negative assessments, particularly his criticism of the Liberal Party and Carney (-34) and abolishing the carbon tax (-9). Being compared to Trump has the most negative net impact of -78. However, he does get a strong positive score (+26) on dealing the US and Trump tariffs.
Jagmeet Singh and Yves-Francois Blanchet remain less visible in the current campaign narrative.
Singh is treading water on references to media and ads (-2) and news about Singh losing support (-1). There is a very negative reaction to any mentions of Singh supporting the Liberal party (-51).
Because of the Bloc’s very low awareness in Quebec (15%) we can’t break impact down by specific issues. But we know that those who have heard about the Bloc like what they are hearing (+17). We also know the top mentions are comments on the Liberals and Carney, giving priority to Quebec, and general positive comments.
The Liberals are fighting a three-front war in this election. They have the initiative in their battles with the Conservatives and the NDP. But they need to be concerned about the Bloc. Quebec is a key element of a potential Liberal victory. Given the positive impact of what voters are hearing about the Bloc, the Liberals need to find ways to keep voters’ attention away from Blanchet and his team.
Click here to read the full report!
