Americans don’t like the idea of imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, in large part because they like trading with Canada. But, so far, the issue is not a problem for Trump. After a week of Trump back in office, Trump voters like what they are seeing.
These are some of the findings of an Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) survey of 1,007 American registered voters. The online survey was conducted on January 23rd and 24th, 2025.
How big an issue is Free Trade in the US. Not as big as you might think. In fact, over the last 12 years, INNOVATIVE has seen American support for the general idea of Free Trade grow from 41% to 58%.
How about the free agreement with Canada? More than two thirds (68%) say free trade with Canada has been a good thing for the US. Those who say “very good” have grown from 28% last June to 34% now.
How about importing energy from Canada?
- 55% say importing electricity from Canada has been good for the US. Again, “very good” is up since June.
- 57% say importing oil from Canada has been good for the US. Five points more say good now than in June.
When we turn to support for tariffs, the general idea of raising tariffs by 10% across the board has slipped from an idea with broad support in June (47% support/ 19% oppose) to an idea that divides American (37% support/ 41% oppose).
Even more striking is the changing reaction to tariffs on Canada. In June, we asked Americans whether they would support raising tariffs on Canadian goods by 10%. At the time, that divided voters with 32% supporting the policy and 29% opposed. Today, a majority of 56% oppose raising tariffs by the current proposal of 25% while just 19% support the idea. While Core Republicans are divided on the measure, Soft Republicans oppose the measure by a 2 to 1 margin and approximately two thirds of independents are opposed.
So where does this leave Canada?
In the short run, as critical as tariffs are in Canada, they are not a big deal in the US. In fact, people who voted for Trump are happy with his performance as President over his first week.
However, Canada has a lot of potential support in its fight against the tariffs if it can make the issue more salient to voters. So, if President Trump acts on this threat, the challenge for Canada is to raise awareness of the issue and its negative US impacts in a way that does not give Donald Trump an opportunity to rally his base.
Click here to read the full report!
