Aerial view of Toronto Financial District at sunset, Ontario, Canada.
Most Ontarians didn’t notice the recent budget, with mixed political signals for the Ontario PCs
These results are drawn from an online survey conducted between March 27th and March 30th 2026, sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group. The survey interviewed n=616 Canadian citizens in Ontario, 18 years or older. The results are provincially weighted to n=500 based on age, gender, region, education, and self‑reported past federal vote to ensure the sample reflects Census population benchmarks.
The Ontario PC Budget released on March 26th was hardly noticed by Ontarians, with only about one-third of Ontarians reporting having read, seen, or heard anything about it. This is a 7-point increase compared to the 2025 budget, but a far cry from the widespread interest of Premier Ford’s first budget in 2019, when 61% of Ontarians had read, seen, or heard something about it.
Ironically, low awareness is good for the government. Those who have read, seen, or heard something about the budget aren’t very positive. The majority (52%) are dissatisfied with the budget, and 22% are very dissatisfied. Overall, the net satisfaction with the budget is 17 points lower than a year ago with the March 2025 budget.
The budget displaced OSAP cuts as the dominant response to open-ended questions in Ontario, but neither narrative helped the government. Prior to the budget, OSAP cuts dominated mentions (19% mention it, with a net impact of -66 on government favourability). The budget release took over as the most mentioned item following its release (22% mention it, with a net impact of -6 on government favourability). OSAP cuts remain the second most cited issue (15% with a net impact of -59).
So, if the budget was received with faint attention and praise, how are the Premier and the Government doing? Here we see something of a ‘glass half full’ situation for the government.
The Ontario PCs continue to maintain a large (15-point) lead over the Liberals, and Doug Ford remains the dominant on Best Premier (36%). However, there are some warning signs for the government.
Government net approval decreased 4 points post-budget. If we zoom out a bit, the general trend in government approval has been a slow decline interrupted by a Trump rally during the first half of 2025. Ontarians are currently split on government approval. Given opponents are split between the NDP and Liberals, that is manageable for the PCs.
There has also been an increase in time for a change. This is more worrisome for the PCs as time-for-a-change today at 64% is a little higher than it was just before the Wynne defeat. What is helping the PCs manage this trend is Ford’s brand as a change agent. There are still 43% who say for all their problems, the PCs are still best able to form government.
The unknown in all this is the impact of the new Liberal leader. However, given that the contest will not end for another 9 months, leadership right now is more a referendum on the Premier rather than a contest among alternatives.
The Premier’s numbers are split. A narrow plurality (40%) of Ontarians see Doug Ford unfavourably, and 1-in-4 very unfavourably, versus 38% favourable. We also see an uptick in those who are unaligned and neutral in their party identification or have a negative impression of Doug Ford, to 20%. A plurality of Ontarians (36%) still rate Ford as the best choice for Premier. However, the number of undecided voters has risen to 24% (up 4 points post-budget), which is a potentially complicating factor.
What we have here is something of a paradox: steady or mildly improving numbers for the PC voting universe, but a decline in the government approval and other underlying numbers. Doug Ford’s personal political standing has been trending downwards, and there is a notable increase in undecided views on who would make the best premier. Is the glass half full or half empty for the Ontario PCs?
