The Bloc was squeezed between the Liberals and the Conservatives in this election.
- The Liberals not only regained party loyalists they lost since 2021, they attracted new supporters as well.
- The Liberals were also aided by the preference of Quebecers for a member in government.
- Many Quebecers felt the Bloc was irrelevant in this election due to Donald Trump.
- The Conservatives won the largest share of Quebecers who felt strongly it was time for a change.
There was just no room left for the Bloc.
These findings are based on online surveys with Quebecers conducted on April 15-20, 2025 (n=491) and April 28–29, 2025 (n=498), weighted to reflect Census benchmarks and past federal vote.
A Shift in Partisanship
Since January, Liberal Party identification in Quebec has grown by 7 points to 31%, based on our April 28–29 post-election survey. These new Liberal partisans appear to be a combination of Liberals supporters who drifted away since the 2021 election and previously unaffiliated voters who were activated during the campaign. The Conservative party base has also grown from 11% in 2021 to 16% following the election. In contrast, the share of Quebecers who identify with the Bloc has remained stable at 25%.
Time for a Change Favours Conservatives over the Bloc
As we see elsewhere in Canada, Liberals success was dependent on winning a critical group of conflicted voters – Time for Change Liberals. However, it was the Conservatives, not the Bloc, who dominated among voters who strongly agreed it was time for change. The Bloc only narrowly beat the Conservatives among the moderate time for a change segment.
Getting on the Right Side of Power
Quebecers have long shown a preference for being on the winning side. Nearly half (49%) say they prefer their MP to be in government, even if it means compromising on Quebec’s interests. Among these voters, Liberal support has grown by 7 points in just two weeks, reaching 48% in the post-election survey.
By contrast, the Bloc has failed to consolidate support even among those who say they prefer an MP who always stands up for Quebec, even if it means being outside of government. Just 29% of Quebecers hold that view, and of them, only 38% voted Bloc.
The Trump Effect
Perhaps the most important factor in the Liberal party’s victory in Quebec is Donald Trump’s interventions in the campaign. Net agreement with the statement “given the situation with Donald Trump, the Bloc Quebecois is just not relevant in this election” was at 28% in the post-election survey, an increase of 8 points compared to the April 15-20th survey. Even some Bloc partisans appeared to question their party’s relevance in the face of Trump’s trade threats. Among those who viewed the Bloc as irrelevant, 54% voted Liberal.
