Following his selection as Liberal leader and Prime Minister designate, Mark Carney’s net favourables have rebounded to +11, opening a 12-point lead over Poilievre. Those positive leadership scores have resulted in the Conservative lead narrowing once again. The CPC are now just 6 points ahead of the Liberal party in decided vote.
These are some of the findings of an online survey of 1,558 Canadian adults, sponsored and conducted by Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) between March 11th and March 13th, 2025. Based on Census data from Statistics Canada, the results are nationally weighted to n=1,000.
On the first head-to-head test of Mark Carney versus Pierre Poilievre following his election as Liberal leader and Prime Minister-designate, Carney is tied with Poilievre at 30% when it comes to who Canadians think would make the best Prime Minister.
Looking just at Canadians with a firm view of who is best to be PM puts Poilievre at 39% and Carney at 38%. This is a major change compared to our last test of Justin Trudeau versus Pierre Poilievre in January 2025. Poilievre is down 8 points while Carney is 22 points higher now than Trudeau was then. Carney is equal to Poilievre in rallying support from his own partisans and beats Poilievre among other partisan segments. Carney has a 20-point lead among Time for A Change Liberals, a critical group of swing voters. The two leaders are tied in Ontario and BC, key regional battlegrounds.
With 41% having a favourable impression of Mark Carney, he is ahead of all other party leaders. Carney’s net favourability increased dramatically from – 3 to +11% this week.
Carney and the Liberals had a good week in the public discourse. An unusually high number (59%) report having read, seen or heard something about Canada’s Prime Minister and the Federal Government in the last few days, and for a plurality (44%), the impact is favourable.
The leadership parity and positive public discourse numbers have not yet translated into vote parity. The Conservatives continue to maintain a lead (now at 39% CPC, Liberals 33%), but the lead has closed by 4-points compared to last week.
Turning to the relationship between Canada and the U.S., most numbers have cooled a bit since last week’s drama:
- A large number (78%) are still watching the news at least somewhat closely, with 36% watching very closely.
- There is a slight shift in how Canadians feel about Donald Trump’s election as the U.S. President. Currently 60% are feeling at least somewhat afraid, which is down from 64% a week ago.
- Net approval for how the Federal government is responding to Trump is down from +39 last week to +31 now
- Approval for how Poilievre is responding to Trump is fairly stable but trails the federal government at only +6.
- Total concern over a 25% tariff on Canadian imports to the U.S. is down marginally this week from 84% to 81%, and intensity is down from 53% very concerned to 47%.
Three-in-ten (61%) support the federal government banning the export of critical products to the U.S. if the U.S. places tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. This marks a potential turnaround as, until this week, this figure had been rising steadily from 55% in late January to 65% a week ago.
Click here to read the full report!
