Canadians’ initial “rally-around-the-flag” response to Trump’s threatened tariffs ebbed for the federal and most provincial governments this week.
Despite that trend, the federal horse race results were stable this week. The federal Conservative party continues to enjoy a 13-point lead while the Liberals have held at 27%, up 5 points from two weeks ago.
Innovative Research Group sponsored and conducted an online survey of 2,015 Canadian adults (including oversamples in Ontario and Alberta) between February 12th and 17th, 2025. Based on Census data from Statistics Canada and past federal vote, the final data are nationally weighted to n=1,000.
Federal Conservative party support continues to lead at 40%. Federal Liberals have held the 5-point jump seen in last week’s tracking and now stand at 27%. Support for Federal Conservatives remains strongest in Alberta (54%) and Prairies (50%), while the Liberals have edged ahead in Atlantic Canada (42%). Support for the Federal NDP remains steady at 16%.
With increased pressure from Canada and U.S. relations, approval ratings of the federal government have dropped 10 points since the last wave. 42% approve of the federal government’s handling of Donald Trump’s presidency issues. This perception is a partisan issue with 61% of Liberals approving, 30% Conservatives, 51% NDPs approve of the response. The highest approval region is BC.
Asked which of current Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal leadership front-runner Mark Carney is best equipped to handle Trump’s renewed presidency, Canadians are split between Carney (34%) and Poilievre (34%). Those who are more afraid than excited about the Trump Presidency continue to see Carney as being more effective than Poilievre. Between Freeland (24%) and Poilievre (37%), Canadians generally feel Poilievre is better equipped to handle Trump.
Mark Carney’s net favourability is held stead this week at +8%. While there is still more uncertainty about Carney than the current Liberal, CPC and NDP leaders, those who know him like him better than those other leaders. Only Bloc leader Blanchet has stronger net favourables (the Bloc leader is only asked in Quebec).
With the dates for the Federal Liberal Party leadership debates announced, the threat of war on tariffs still hanging in the air, and growing nationalist sentiment fueled by Tramp’s annexation talk, voter sentiment will continue to shift and shape the unpredictable political reality ahead.
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