INNOVATIVE RESEARCH GROUP, INC.




		Innovative Research Group Inc. is a national public opinion research and strategy firm with offices in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. We provide critical information needed to assess and overcome public affairs and corporate communications challenges, identify and evaluate potential solutions, and monitor success.

July 21, 2010: Canadian Healthcare Supply Chain Standards Survey GS1 Canada A majority of Canadian healthcare institutions and their suppliers support moving to a pan-Canadian approach to bar coding healthcare products as well as sharing administrative data electronically, based on the GS1 System of standards. According to a survey conducted by Innovative Research Group Inc (INNOVATIVE), the sector believes that such a unified approach will improve patient safety and generate significant system-wide cost savings. Press Release English Report Rapport Français March 29, 2010: *Assessing Not-for-profit Boards* Governance Structures and Practices in Canada Clear board policies and mandates, formal orientation processes and ongoing director training separate high performance not-for-profit boards from others according to a new survey commissioned by Canadian Fundraising & Philanthropy and Altruvest Charitable Services and conducted by Innovative Research Group. Release(PDF, 215k) AFP Coverage CharityVillage.com article (PDF, 60k) March 11, 2010: *Innovative Research Group - Poll* Olympics win over Undecided as Canadians tuned in, but critics unmoved INNOVATIVE asked Canadians in September 2009, December 2009, and immediately after the Olympics in March 2010 whether they thought the 2010 Olympics were a “great idea” or a “mistake”. Those believing it was a great idea leapt from 28% before the Olympics to 66% afterwards. British Columbians remained the most skeptical with 39% believing it was a mistake – before and after. But as with Canadians elsewhere, undecideds in BC jumped on the Olympics bandwagon. Canadians as a whole surprised themselves as only one in five planned to watch Olympic events every day, but almost half reported afterwards that they tuned in daily. Report(PDF, 292k) March 11, 2010: *The Globe and Mail* Olympics fail to win over big chunk of B.C.: poll B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell may be disappointed if he is hoping for a Games-based popularity bounce, an extensive poll by Innovative Research Group suggests. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 34k) March 11, 2010: *Edmonton Journal* Government missing mark in plan to cut back military spending It is clear that Canadians want their country to play a strong military role in the world. A recent Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute survey conducted by Innovative Research Group has found that well over a majority of those polled want the Canadian Forces to be able to contribute to humanitarian and war-fighting missions in the future. Edmonton Journal article(PDF, 22k) March 11, 2010: *Canada.com* Canadians split on potential military spending cuts: Poll Canadians appear divided on whether the government should reduce military spending to shrink the federal deficit when the Afghanistan mission is over, according to the findings of a poll conducted for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute. Canada.com article(PDF, 70k) February 26, 2010: The *Globe and Mail* It's gonna get ugly as bell rings on prorogation These days it seems every six months or so Canadian politics changes fundamentally. Tory fortunes have risen and fallen in Quebec. Liberals leaders have come and gone. This new parliamentary session will open and continue this pattern of change as the political climate shifts yet again. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 50k) February 2010: *Innovative Poll* - S.U.C.C.E.S.S. Using Chinese media is key to creating awareness in Metro-Vancouver’s Chinese communities Vancouver, B.C. CANADA – S.U.C.C.E.S.S. CEO, Tung Chan, released a public opinion research today that illustrates the importance of Chinese language print media in reaching Metro Vancouver’s growing Chinese community, and the limitations of English language print media. A telephone survey of 555 Mandarin and Cantonese-speaking Metro-Vancouver residents conducted by INNOVATIVE Research Group last fall found that the readership of Chinese newspapers outnumbered English newspapers by three to one. Report(PDF, 345k) January 2010: *Innovative Poll* Canadians on the Olympics The excitement isn't building... yet. INNOVATIVE has been tracking Canadians' excitement level regarding the 2010 Olympic Games and it remains unchanged since September, with 44% very or somewhat excited and 54% not very or not excited at all. Our survey also asks Canadians whether they think the 2010 Olympic bid was a great idea or not, and if they are following the Olympic torch relay closely. With weeks to go, it remains to be seen if more Canadians will jump on the Olympics bandwagon. Report(PDF, 380k) January 14, 2010: The *Globe and Mail* Rapid aid rollout shows PM has learned from the past Some people might be surprised to learn that climate change is perceived as a larger threat to the vital interests of Canadians for the next decade than terrorism, according to a new poll from Innovative Research Group. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 41k) January 12, 2010: *National Post* Canadian climate fears fall below 50% Some people might be surprised to learn that climate change is perceived as a larger threat to the vital interests of Canadians for the next decade than terrorism, according to a new poll from Innovative Research Group. National Post article(PDF, 185k) January 12, 2010: *All Headline News* Survey: Canadians Say Climate Change Is A Larger Threat Than Terrorism For New Decade As the world ushered in the second decade of the millennium, changes have been observed regarding the perception of what people perceive as threats to their lives and existence. Among Canadians, a new survey showed that a large number believe climate change is now a bigger threat than terrorism. All Headline News article(PDF, 123k) January 11, 2010: *Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute* Threat perceptions in Canada Perceptions have shifted a great deal in the minds’ of Canadians when it comes to threats to the vital interests of Canada in the next 10 years. Climate change now dominates the agenda, while terrorism and potential epidemics have almost disappeared from Canadians’ radar screen. CDFAI website Report National Post article(PDF, 28k) Ottawa Citizen article(PDF, 21k) Other articles January 8, 2010: The *Globe and Mail* Another arrow in the opposition's ‘hubris quiver' Can the opposition make Canadians care about prorogation? Arguably Canadians already do care. But is prorogation the most important issue for the opposition? I think not. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 31k) January 7, 2010: The *Globe and Mail* PM asks voters for budget advice “It frames the problem facing the country as the deficit, as opposed to health care,” said pollster Greg Lyle, managing director of Innovative Research Group. “If the problem you want to solve in the election is getting somebody who's best able to handle the deficit, the answer's going to be Stephen Harper.” The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 28k) December 22, 2009: *Canada.com, Kelowna.com* Canadians cool to Harper's climate change stand The Harper government might not lose many votes over its controversial stance on climate change even though half of Canadians disapprove of its policies, says a new poll. The survey, conducted over the past few days by Innovative Research Group for Canwest News Service, found 49 per cent of respondents disapproved of the government's position at the Copenhagen climate conference, but 44 per cent said it would not make a difference on whether they were more or less likely to vote for the Conservatives. Canada.com article(PDF, 44k) Kelowna.com article(PDF, 16k) December 14, 2009: The Alberta Government, Calgary Herald Alberta Nuclear Consultation, summary The Alberta Ministry of Energy engaged Innovative Research Group Inc. to conduct the Alberta Nuclear Public Consultation. The consultation process began with a multi-pronged qualitative research process to identify the range of views that Albertans hold on Alberta’s electricity options and nuclear energy. Once those views were identified, they provided the foundation for a telephone survey of 1024 randomly-recruited Albertans to see how many Albertans agreed with the various viewpoints raised during the qualitative research process. Since only the telephone results are statistically representative of the Alberta population, the Executive Summary report uses the telephone survey results to illustrate key findings. Government of Albert, Energy(PDF, 29k) Government of Albert, Energy(Website Link) Calgary Herald article(PDF, 33k) December 1, 2009: *Munk Debates* Debate erodes belief that climate change is mankind’s defining crisis and demands a commensurate response. Just days before the United Nation’s historic Copenhagen summit the Munk Debates tackled one of the great public policy questions of our time: how should the world respond to climate change? CO2 levels in the atmosphere are climbing steadily higher. Some believe this is having a devastating effect on humans and nature, while others argue that the threat has been overstated. Is this the moment for a bold international treaty to curb carbon emissions? Or, are the social and economic costs of reducing CO2 emissions too high in a world where a billion people live on a dollar or less a day? Munk Debates factum(PDF, 193k) November 9, 2009: The *Globe and Mail* Tories take two in by-elections Stephen Harper’s Conservatives pulled off an amazing political upset in federal by-elections Monday night, stealing a rural Quebec stronghold seat from the Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives also reclaimed a traditionally Tory seat in Nova Scotia, ultimately winning two of the four by-elections held Monday. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 29k) November 5, 2009: The *Globe and Mail* Wildrose Alliance has heady advice for B.C. Tories Memo from Danielle Smith, rookie leader of Alberta's Wildrose Alliance Party, to B.C. Conservatives: Run a vigorous, open race to elect your next leader. You need seats in the legislature, even one, to be a credible political force. And you need to embrace issues that are going to appeal to the broadest array of voters. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 29k) November 2, 2009: *CNW News* & Historica Dominion American Myths Revisited: Barack Obama has not fundamentally changed how Canadians see the United States A survey for the Historica-Dominion Institute on the first anniversary of the election of Barack Obama finds that the new president has not fundamentally changed how Canadians see the United States. While President Obama is dramatically more popular today among Canadians than George W. Bush, Canadians feel only slightly more favourably toward the United States than they did in a similar poll four years ago, according to a recent survey conducted by the Innovative Research Group. CNW News article(PDF, 17k) Historica Dominion article(PDF, 71k) October 28, 2009: The *Globe and Mail* Donolo's challenge: stop the Liberals' ugly slide Party insiders are calling for new chief of staff to craft a solid message about what the Grits stand for Two months ago, Michael Ignatieff launched an unexplained rush to trigger an election. Last month, he overruled Quebec lieutenant Denis Coderre over a Montreal candidate, prompting him to quit while blaming a cabal of the leader's Toronto aides. On Tuesday, a quick change of staff aimed at righting the ship became a very public mess, as news of chief of staff Ian Davey's departure broke before he was told. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 36k) October 26, 2009: National Post, The Windsor Star, The Gazette, Military World* & All Headline News* Fewer support the Afghan mission Support for Canada's military mission in Afghanistan has dropped below 50 per cent, a new Innovative Research Group survey suggests, marking a significant decline over the past three years. 45 per cent of Canadians now support the mission, down from 59 per cent in June 2006. Quebecers voiced the most opposition to the mission, with 68 per cent saying they were against sending troops to Afghanistan. A majority of respondents in Alberta and the Atlantic provinces also opposed sending troops, with 51 per cent in each region saying so. The National Post article(PDF, 43k) The Windsor Star article(PDF, 38k) The Gazette article(PDF, 18k) Military World article(PDF, 39k) All Headline News article(PDF, 107k) October 17, 2009: Globe and Mail With the Games now so close, harsh reality is setting in Many in B.C. are questioning whether hosting the Olympics was such a good idea after all There comes a point in the runup to every Olympics when those living in the host city and surrounding environs begin questioning whether it was such a good idea after all. Many in B.C. have arrived at that juncture. The cheers that went up six years ago when Vancouver-Whistler was awarded the 2010 Winter Olympics have long since faded. Now, with the Games less than four months away, reality is starting to set in. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 39k) Presentation(PDF, 176k) October 8, 2009: BNN SqueezePlay Politics Panel BNN speaks to Greg Lyle, managing director, Innovative Research Group, and Charles Bird, principal, Earnscliffe Strategy Group. The controversies hampering Ontario's eHealth program are also dogging the provincial Liberal government under Dalton McGuinty. The party is also under fire on the national level, with a new poll showing less than 30 per cent support for Michael Ignatieff's Liberals. Video Clip October 8, 2009: *Public Affairs Association of Canada \| INNOVATIVE Poll* Ontario Political Midterm Review Innovative Research Group's presentation to the Public Affairs Association of Canada breakfast on the Ontario political scene at mid-term. Presentation(PDF, 337k) October 7, 2009: *Assessing Not-for-profit Boards* Governance Structures and Practices in Canada Clear board policies and mandates, formal orientation processes and ongoing director training separate high performance not-for-profit boards from others according to a new survey commissioned by Canadian Fundraising & Philanthropy and Altruvest Charitable Services and conducted by Innovative Research Group. Release(PDF, 215k) AFP Coverage October 5, 2009: *The Windsor Star* Take advantage of Obama effect During last months' meeting with President Barack Obama, his seventh since they first met in February, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that the United States is "far and away our best friend in the world." There are times when leaders are out of sync with popular sentiment but, as the survey conducted this past weekend by the Innovative Research Group reveals, more than half of Canadians believe that Obama's election has been a good thing for Canada. Call it the "Obama effect." The Windsor Star article(PDF, 29k) September 20, 2009: *Calgary Herald* Obama’s popularity higher than ever in Canada: poll U.S. President Barack Obama is more popular among Canadians now than when he was first elected, according to a new poll that suggests this country’s opposition parties may have lost one of their campaign weapons against the governing Conservatives. A new poll provided exclusively to Canwest News Service suggests Canadians are no longer as worried about seeing Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government cozy up to the U.S. administration, said Greg Lyle of the Innovative Research Group. The Calgary Herald article(PDF, 43k) September 14, 2009: The *Ottawa Citizen* Unsettled waters ahead for McGuinty After cruising to successive, historic majorities, Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty returns to the legislature today with his back against the ropes, fighting off successive scandals while implementing an unpopular new tax regime. The situation is a unique one for McGuinty, a 54-year-old Ottawa native, who, since breaking a key election promise by raising taxes in 2004, has cruised through the last five years at Ontario's helm without any major glitches. The Ottawa Citizen article(PDF, 27k) September 11, 2009: *The Ottawa Citizen* Fired OLG head sues Ontario government The former head of Ontario’s troubled lottery corporation struck back at the Liberal government Friday, launching a lawsuit over her firing last month. “The actions taken against me by the Ontario government were severe and unjustified and I must therefore seek legal action to establish the facts and restore my reputation,” Kelly McDougald said in a statement released Friday. The Ottawa Citizen article(PDF, 18k) September 9, 2009: The *Globe and Mail* Tories to stoke fear of opposition coalition. Stephen Harper's Conservatives have decided their election strategy will rely in part on reviving the ghosts of last December. The fleeting, four-day coalition that opposition parties formed in late 2008 to unseat Mr. Harper's Conservatives was deeply unpopular outside Quebec. The Tories plan to resurrect its fading memory to rattle voters, warning that backing opposition parties will bring instability. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 31k) September 7, 2009: The *Hill Times* Marzolini tells Grits 46% want either a Liberal minority or majority But pollster Greg Lyle says Tories and Liberals still have not sealed their base. Liberal Party pollster Michael Marzolini told the Grits at last week’s national summer retreat in Sudbury, Ont., that a total of 46 per cent of Canadians want either a Liberal minority or majority government, compared to 38 per cent who said they want a Conservative minority or a majority. The Hill Times article(PDF, 201k) September 7, 2009: The *Hill Times* Political parties to focus on crucial 'swing ridings' in economic downturn campaign bid Conservatives and Liberals to focus on 71 ridings where the margin of victory was 10 per cent or less in last election. The governing Conservatives and Liberals, who are in a statistical dead heat in public opinion polls nationally, will focus on the 71 swing ridings where the margin of victory was 10 per cent or less in the last federal election, say pollsters. The Hill Times article(PDF, 183k) August 10, 2009: The *Hill Times* Economy to be next election's ballot box question The ballot box question for the next election will again be about the economy and Conservatives are confident that with the Bank of Canada's recent announcement that the country is out of recession, Canadians will give their party credit for "prudently" handling the tough economic times. The Hill Times article(PDF, 256k) August 10, 2009: The *Hill Times* NDP name change 'significant step,' could send mixed signals and may confuse voters "Democratic Party, nothing wrong with that but they pick up every thing that happens in the States with that. Right now, that's good but it isn't always good. It wasn't great when Jimmy Carter was the president," said pollster Greg Lyle, of Innovative Research in an interview with The Hill Times. The Hill Times article(PDF, 282k) July 29, 2009: The *National Post* Concern about Nortel slim: poll Most Canadians don't think Nortel's bankruptcy proceedings are an issue of national importance, but only because they don't know much about the issue, a poll suggests. The poll, released yesterday, assesses how Canadians feel about the government potentially intervening on behalf of Research In Motion to help the Canadian BlackBerry maker buy some Nortel assets. The National Post article(PDF, 24k) Report(PDF, 409k) July 22, 2009: The *National Post* Poll serves as warning to pols City workers in Toronto may be on strike, but politicians most certainly are not. If anything, the five-week labour disruption has provided public office holders with ample opportunity for heightened visibility -- and a chance to test their mettle in a crisis. The National Post article(PDF, 33k) Report(PDF, 215k) May 25, 2009: The *National Post* 46% favour foreign aid priorities, poll finds A recent government decision to refocus how Canada spends its foreign aid dollars, in order to target certain developing countries and initiatives while de-prioritizing others, has been received favourably by the Canadian public, according to a survey by the Innovative Research Group. The National Post article(PDF, 25k) May 9, 2009: The *Globe and Mail* Liberals lead, poll says, but NDP could gain The B.C. Liberals have staked out a solid lead heading into the final days of campaigning, but a concerted wooing of the soft Green vote by the NDP could close that gap and allow the party to eke out a victory, a poll from Innovative Research Group indicates. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 34k) Report(PDF, 293k) February 17, 2009: The *Globe and Mail* Charities anticipate drop in donations Four out of 10 Canadian charities expect a drop in donations this year, a new survey suggests. But when it comes to giving, another poll shows there appears to be no place like home. The Innovative Research Group conducted two polls - one of charities and the other of the public - to gauge giving in tough economic times. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 53k) CBC News article(PDF, 89k) October 9, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Harper's support sags in post-debate survey After Conservative Leader Stephen Harper spent last week's English and French debates fending off attacks from his four opponents, Tory support has slipped across the country in a broad range of categories, a new poll shows. The poll was conducted for The Globe and Mail and Montreal's La Presse over the five days since the debates ended. Released Wednesday, it shows overall support dropping for the Conservatives and the Liberals since last month, with the other parties picking up small gains. The Tories are still in the lead, consistent with other polling. About 26 per cent of Canadians remain undecided. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 394k) October 8, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* How can Dion build on his momentum? With Conservative stumbles having helped put the Liberals back in the race, how can Stephane Dion build on the momentum in the federal election campaign's final days? Stephane Dion and the Liberals have a simple task in front of them: rallying their base. The Liberal party retains a strong brand in this country. Roughly 30 per cent of Canadians identify themselves as federal Liberals. They don't need Mr. Dion to convince them that Liberals are good; he needs to convince them that he is a good Liberal. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 489k) October 7, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Assessing Harper's platform In light of current economic circumstances and their recent slide in the polls, did the Conservatives take the right approach with their platform release on Tuesday? I think the Tories missed the mark on Tuesday.It seems to me that the average Canadian is hearing the Conservatives urge them not to worry but not hearing the Conservatives say the reason Canadians do not need to worry is that the government has already taken action. The Tory campaign has not responded to this problem, in part because it makes a virtue of not responding. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 135k) October 6, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Parties get sophisticated in bid for immigrant vote For the first time in a federal election, three of Canada's five main political parties are using a sophisticated new micro-targeting voter-profile tool, which outlines people's ethnicity, social values and income level, cross-referenced with their political support. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 386k) October 6, 2008: *Marketwire* British Columbia Securities Commission: Research Demonstrates Distinct Differences Between British Columbians and Vancouver's Chinese-Language Residents An investor survey released today by the British Columbia Securities Commission focusing on Metro Vancouver's Chinese-language residents found that some of their attitudes toward investing could put them at risk of falling victim to investment fraud. Martketwire article(PDF, 34k) October 6, 2008: The *Hill Times* Prime Minister Harper visits mostly unheld ridings in bid to win power Stephen Harper's tour is 'effectively a marketing vehicle' for the party's local candidates. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has visited approximately 36 federal ridings over the last four weeks of the election campaign, but only three held by the Conservatives, in an effort to shore up support in key ridings they believe they can win in next week's election. The Hill Times article(PDF, 140k) October 3, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Who won, and what now? How did the leaders fare in the English-language debate? Tonight's debate gave every party something to celebrate, but for me it was more about missed opportunities. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 182k) October 2, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Dion has the most to gain tonight, poll says Canadians will be tuning in to tonight's English-language leaders' debate with low expectations of Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion and watching primarily to see which participant "understands people like me" and is the most well-spoken, a new poll indicates. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 53k) October 2, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* French-language debate breakdown How did the leaders fare in achieving their objectives in the French-language debate? What mattered in the debate was not just what happened around the table, but how those performances played against the strategic situation coming in. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 177k) September 30, 2008: The *National Post* All parties focused on Vancouver seats The National Post's series on the resonant issues and interesting races in regions across the country focuses today on suburban Vancouver. "You look at West Vancouver, where we lost by under 1,000 votes, look at the North Island, where we lost by a similar amount. There are some key seats that we hope to get back," he says. The National Post article(PDF, 264k) September 30, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* THE STRATEGISTS: What does Stéphane Dion need to do to win this week's debates? "Dion's challenge in these debates is to remind all those people who do not want to see a Stephen Harper government that the Liberal party is still be best vehicle to stop the Tories. To accomplish this goal, he has to do several things at once." The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 51k) September 29, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* How to handle the economic crisis How should campaigning Canadian leaders handle the U.S. economic crisis? While a hard news event such as an economic crisis creates uncertainty for all parties, the Conservatives are the likely beneficiaries of the current situation. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 175k) September 29, 2008: The *Hill Times* Tories targeting 40 key unheld ridings in Quebec, Ontario Conservatives trying to 'break the back' of Bloc in Quebec, incumbency worth about 10 per cent. The Conservatives are blitzing at least 40 key swing ridings they don't currently hold in Quebec and Ontario with a barrage of phone calls, door-knocking and direct mailings in an aggressive effort to win at least 20 to 30 more ridings in the provinces on election day and win a majority. The Hill Times article(PDF, 175k) September 26, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Today's Liberals need an issue, like free trade, to turn fortunes They were led by an unpopular leader, had trouble getting their message heard and faced a stiff challenge for second place from a surging NDP. But the 1988 Liberals of John Turner had a decided advantage over the faltering Grits of today. They had an issue. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 85k) September 24, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* How will voters respond to Harper's battle with the arts community? Is Stephen Harper's battle with the arts community likely to help or hurt him with voters? This battle really makes no sense for Stephen Harper. Forget about substance for a moment. Forget about Richard Florida and his arguments about the rise of the creative class and what that means for the wealth of nations. Let's just look at the politics. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 168k) September 23, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Do parties need to revisit their vetting processes? With Julian West the latest candidate to resign because of an embarrassing controversy, do all parties need to revisit their vetting processes? With candidates resigning from the NDP, the Liberals and the Tories, there is no doubt all three parties will want to take a fresh look at their candidate screening processes. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 168k) September 22, 2008: The *Hill Times* House seat projections 'voodoo science': pollsters Political pollsters say it's difficult to get resources to do seat projections well. Despite changes in technology causing challenges to polling methods, political public opinion surveys are still accurate snapshots of voters' intentions, say leading polling experts, who are also conflicted about producing "voodoo science" House seat projections. The Hill Times article(PDF, 145k) September 22, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* How should Dion sell his platform to voters? Are there elements of Stephane Dion's platform, released Monday, that he should be emphasizing over the green shift? As a communications document, the platform is disappointing. The focus is on a richer, fairer and greener Canada. Nothing wrong with that but the goals are too broad, too 30,000 feet. They are so general they are difficult to believe. The Liberals need to connect with swing voters – who are not really interested in the picture. They just need one reason to believe their life will get better if Stéphane Dion is Prime Minister. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 235k) September 22, 2008: *Montreal Gazette* It's the economy, OK? Rising prices, low incomes big issues for voters With Canadians beginning to feel a squeeze from the global economic slowdown and prices for food and gas becoming a big burden on some budgets, the impending federal election could be one of those that turns largely on pocketbook issues. Montreal Gazette(PDF, 37k) September 21, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Pollsters' Corner With two weeks under our belt, it's clear this election is the Tories' to lose. At this point, we are left with three key questions: 1. Can the Tories make it to a majority? They are gaining now in B.C. and rural and small-town Ontario and Quebec. The Tories will also likely win more than their fair share of close races with the Liberals, because the Tory base consists of voters more likely and more motivated to vote, and the Tory machine will do a better job of pulling the vote. But they may still be a little shy. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 72k) September 20, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Assessing the first two weeks The NDP has run the best campaign so far. It set a clear ballot question, the ads and its events generally work together to support that ballot question and, most importantly, it has not made any mistakes that distract from its message. The NDP has made a big bet on Quebec this election, with a $1-million ad buy to drive a breakthrough. Now that it has made the bet, it needs to follow through. To me, that means thinking about the French debate and developing some potential moments where Jack Layton can square off against Gilles Duceppe and strip the social democrats out of the sovereignist coalition just as the Tories are pulling whatever bleus are still left. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 176k) September 18, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Is Harper right to stand by his minister? If campaigns are a mix of art and science, the decision on when to back a minister who makes a verbal miscue and when to run is all art. There are no firm rules here. This is where gut instinct triumphs over cold calculation. In what he thought was a private moment, Gerry Ritz indulged in some black humour. Who hasn't? But what we do as private citizens is held to one standard. What ministers do as public servants, even in private moments, is held to another, tougher standard. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 176k) September 16, 2008: *Dominion Institute \| INNOVATIVE Poll* Canadian Parties Fail to Engage with New Media and Risk Leaving Young Voters on the Sidelines A poll for the Dominion Institute, conducted by Innovative Research Group, shows that political parties have not yet adjusted to the new online environment that young Canadians increasingly inhabit. Young Canadians live in a new world where even more (83%) have a Facebook page than have a cell phone (81%). Furthermore, young Canadians prefer to use the internet (35%) when looking for more information about the Canadian election, followed by three-in-ten who chose television (30%). Less than one-in-ten (8%) chose friends and family as their key information source. Release 1(PDF, 46k) Release 2(PDF, 24k) Release 3(PDF, 21k) Report(PDF, 250k) Macleans article(PDF, 74k) The National Post article(PDF, 71k) The Sudbury Star article(PDF, 188k) Excalibur - York University article(PDF, 388k) September 15, 2008: The *Agenda with Steve Paikin* The Numbers Tell the Story...So Far Greg Lyle is a former charter member of Mike Harris's Common Sense Revolution. Now he makes his living heading up the Innovative Research Group and is one of the leading pollsters in the country using the internet to measure public opinion. Last week, he gave a wide-ranging briefing on several significant issues related to the current federal election campaign. Here are some of his chief findings: The Agenda - Steve Paikin(PDF, 121k) September 14, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Pollsters' corner Despite a difficult first week for the Conservatives, post polls showed little impact on their public support. why is that? Is there a lag in voter reaction, or did the Tories just manage to escape the week unscathed? The fundamentals for the Tories remain unchanged despite the gaffe-watch coverage. Stephen Harper continues to be seen as Canada's strongest, most capable leader. Not only is time-for-a-change sentiment low, there are enough people afraid of change to deliver a Tory majority. Finally, none of the tactical errors in the campaign changed the strategic reality that the economy is a major issue in this campaign, if not the major issue, and the Tories enjoy a strong lead on the issue. The one tactical development that may matter is including Elizabeth May in the debate. This will raise her visibility with voters and creates an opportunity to capture the public imagination and likely help the Tories by splitting the centre-left vote. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 102k) September 13, 2008: The *Vancouver Sun* 10 Races to Care About As federal candidates line up for the Oct. 14 vote, the battle for British Columbia could be decided in the Lower Mainland. A dozen or so battleground ridings in Metro Vancouver could determine whether Stephen Harper's Conservatives form a majority government. The Tories need to make significant gains in Canada's big cities, including Metro, to reach a majority, said Denis Pilon, a political scientist at the University of Victoria. The Vancouver Sun article(PDF, 35k) September 12, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Are positive polls a problem for Harper? *How much of a problem do polls showing the Tories within reach of a majority government, such as the one released Friday, pose for Stephen Harper?* At the moment the majority headlines don't seem to be a problem. There are almost as many people scared of change as want change. The majority headlines do provide a platform for the Tories in Quebec because of the Bloc pitch — vote for us to stop the majority — but the Bloc needs to up the ante by doing a better job of explaining why a majority would be bad for Quebec. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 208k) September 12, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* What the Tories know about you The Conservative Party's campaign computers hold the most detailed electoral data on Canadians ever assembled by a political party, the product of highly sophisticated technology and a four-year mission to make personal contact with every voter in the country's key contested ridings. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 496k) September 12, 2008: *Canwest News Service* Economy could determine election result With Canadians beginning to feel a squeeze from the global economic slowdown and prices for food and gas becoming a big burden on some budgets, the impending federal election could be one of those that turns largely on pocketbook issues. If so, it will be something of a novelty in recent political history. The economy is always significant to voters, but unlike in U.S. presidential elections, it's not always a top issue when Canadians choose federal governments. Canwest News Service article(PDF, 35k) September 11, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* How can the Tories regain control of their campaign? The highest praise for a good campaign is that it played error-free ball. No one can say that about the Conservatives this week. Between opposing the participation of Elizabeth May in the debate, 6:00 a.m. media conferences, puffins, and misstepping spokespeople, the Conservatives' campaign just is not up to the standard they set in 2006. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 169k) September 11, 2008: *CNW Group* Canadians Fear Financial Impact of Caring for Sick Family Member Canadian Cancer Society Calls on Parties to support a National Caregivers Strategy More than 50 per cent of Canadians are concerned about the financial impact of caring for a sick family member, says a national public opinion poll conducted for the Canadian Cancer Society. Poll results also show that more than 60 per cent of Canadians believe it is likely that they, or their spouse or partner, will be a caregiver to a sick family member in the future. The CNW Group article(PDF, 43k) September 9, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* How did the launch of the various campaigns go and what did we learn about each campaign by their first step? No party got a clean start to this campaign, but no one ever does. The Tories are probably the happiest. The launch day went well as Stephen Harper clearly established ballot questions in both English Canada - what leader can you trust to manage Canada in these difficult economic times? - and Quebec - which party is best able to deliver results for Quebec? The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 55k) September 8, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Pollsters' corner Expert analysis of the latest numbers In the new battleground ridings poll, the Conservatives seem to be making major gains in Ontario, Quebec and B.C. In which province(s) are those gains likeliest to hold? B.C. looks the best for the Conservatives. The introduction of B.C.'s own carbon tax has created a backlash that is perfect for the Tories. The NDP could gain, but its message is yes to a carbon tax - just not this one. The Conservatives have an unambiguous message, and simple sells. Ontario is complicated by listeriosis, which has been used to evoke Walkerton. That could potentially create some fear about a majority Conservative government. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 68k) September 6, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Liberals lead on the environment, new poll finds The Conservatives are scoring points on the economy, but Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion is more capable of handling environmental issues, according to a new survey taken on the eve of Prime Minister Stephen Harper calling an election. The new poll for The Globe and Mail found that almost 30 per cent of Canadians, outside of Quebec, believe the Liberals would be in a better position to handle environmental challenges compared with 21 per cent of those who favour the Tories. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 66k) September 2, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Taking a tactical cue from the Republicans Armchair politicians who are perplexed by why the federal Tories sometimes play up divisive social conservative issues such as opposition to same-sex marriage need look no further than today's poll. It's all about shoring up the party's core vote. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 53k) September 2, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Harper Tories on the brink of majority, poll finds Voters doubtful of Dion's leadership skills The Harper Conservatives will enter a federal election campaign with a polling lead that puts them within striking distance of winning a majority government, according to a new survey taken on the eve of an expected vote. The new poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Canadian voters satisfied with the direction of the country and significantly more confident in the leadership abilities of the Tories and Prime Minister Stephen Harper than they are in those of his main rival, Stéphane Dion and the Liberals. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 55k) September 1, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Listeriosis outbreak: A ‘meat-and-potatoes' election issue? So far, the deaths caused by the recent listeriosis outbreak do not appear to have harmed the Conservative Party's political fortunes. But they may return as an issue, according to pollster Greg Lyle. On the question of who would be more aggressive in protecting food and product safety, 22 per cent said they would choose the Conservatives, while 20 per cent opted for the Liberals and 15 per cent opted for the NDP. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 70k) August 21, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Hugging our heritage while cutting our culture In the past week, Canadians have learned of a federal government initiative to search for the remains of Arctic explorer Sir John Franklin's ships. By taking a leadership role in a mission to reclaim our history, the government is establishing its patriotic credentials. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 73k) August 20, 2008: The *Globe and Mail* Slump in U.S. housing market helps drag B.C. economy to new low British Columbia's economy is sputtering as the U.S. housing crisis continues to undermine exports, driving down growth this year to its lowest levels since the Liberals took power in 2001, according to estimates issued yesterday. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 47k) August 11, 2008: *The Hill Times* Close race in Guelph shaping up as a tough test of Dion's Green Shift plan A strong NDP candidate and a divided green vote could hurt the Liberals in the riding, says pollster Stéphane Dion's risky Green Shift plan is about to face its toughest test yet in the too-close-to-call Guelph byelection, where the Liberals say the top issue for voters is the environment and the Tories say it's taxation. "I think the Green Shift is big, and I think the government's record is big, and I think it will be a duel between those two big things," Innovative Research pollster Greg Lyle said in an interview. "If [the Conservatives] do narrow the gap, the reason they're going to narrow the gap is very likely going to be the carbon tax proposal." The Hill Times article(PDF, 125k) July 20, 2008: *Edmonton Sun* A surreal spectacle in Quebec For three solid days the surreal jawing went on. Hogging the microphones at the Council of the Federation meeting here are the Four Horsemen of the Climate Change Apocalypse - Quebec Premier Jean Charest, Manitoba Premier Gary Doer, B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell and, most of all, Ontario's Dalton McGuinty. Edmonton Sun article(PDF, 24k) July 18, 2008: *Edmonton Sun* War of words over trade barriers A meeting code-named Quadrant took place 65 years ago in the Chateau Frontenac - the very same hotel the Council of the Federation gab fest is being held this week. It's the spot where Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt basically cut the D-Day deal to invade Adolf Hitler's Fortress Europe. Edmonton Sun article(PDF, 24k) July 1, 2008: *The Globe and Mail* Day 1 of BC's tax revs up political pressure The price of gasoline shot to $1.50 a litre in Vancouver on Tuesday as British Columbians became the first Canadians to deal directly with a carbon tax. The extra 2.34 cents a litre for regular gasoline has caused consternation among the majority of voters – highlighting the challenge of carbon-pricing politics. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 85k) June 16, 2008: *The Hill Times* Tory attack ads only working with Conservative base, says poll The governing Conservatives' pre-emptive, three-pronged attack-ad blitz on the Liberals' yet-to-be unveiled carbon tax plan is a good strategy, say some, but Grits say it could backfire as both parties gauge voters. The Hill Times article(PDF, 314k) June 14, 2008: *The Globe and Mail* School-abuse apology widely backed The Conservative government's apology for the residential schools program marked a rare phenomenon in Canadian politics, a new poll has found: a government decision that not only garnered near-universal awareness among Canadians but also very broad support. Report(PDF, 783k) The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 70k) June 5, 2008: *Dominion Institute \| INNOVATIVE Poll* Veterans fear Canadians forgetting sacrifices: poll A Dominion Institute survey of Canadian war veterans, described as the first poll of its kind, has found that 80 per cent of those who fought in the Second World War and Korean conflict are concerned about how Canadians will remember those battles when the soldiers have passed away. The Canwest News Service article(PDF, 26k) May 30, 2008: The Globe and Mail Campbell's about-faces on key issues a gamble that seems to be paying off Political flip-flops are usually interpreted as a sign of weakness - at best. Think of Pierre Trudeau's promise never to impose wage and price controls. Jean Chrétien's vow to replace the GST. Brian Mulroney's opposition to free trade with the United States. Premier Gordon Campbell has executed a few about-faces in his seven years in office, most recently with an election gag law that surpasses the one he once opposed as an "inexcusable" assault on democracy. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 52k) May 19, 2008: The Globe and Mail NDP has a shot at beating Liberals, poll says With less than a year until election, numbers suggest social issues could create a crack in Campbell's armour. With less than a year before the next election, the provincial New Democratic Party does have a chance to break the B.C. Liberals' commanding lead in popularity, a new poll concludes. "There is a very clear path to victory for the NDP," pollster Greg Lyle said in an interview. It is, however, a steep path. Support for Gordon Campbell's B.C. Liberal Party has remained comfortably solid for so long, a third term has appeared inevitable when voters go to the polls on May 12, 2009. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 47k) April 28, 2008: The Hill Times Liberal grassroots energized, but top Grits say no decision on an election, yet But Grits could have own problems as RCMP sets sights on Liberal Party hierarchy too. After a long spell of hopelessness about their political fortunes, grassroots Liberals are feeling re-energized following the RCMP raid at the Conservative Party headquarters in Ottawa and want to go to the polls as soon as possible, but senior Liberals are saying that no decision has been made and are arguing that it might be a good idea to wait in the hope that Elections Canada may lay criminal charges against some Conservatives relating to the "in and out" scheme on election financing. The Hill Times article(PDF, 139k) March 31, 2008: The Hill Times Flaherty's strategy: shape Liberals as poor managers of economy Tories are building up economic management as a wedge issue. Flaherty's attacks on McGuinty fall into the long-term strategy. Conservative insiders say Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's unusual but calculated political broadside against Ontario Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty has several motivations, ranging from personal antagonism to ideological differences, but that his overall strategy is to shape a long-term view of the Liberals as poor managers of the economy. The Hill Times article(PDF, 119k) January 25, 2008: *INNOVATIVE Poll* Report's recommendations welcome, poll finds Canadians are giving a supportive welcome to John Manley's report on Canada's involvement in Afghanistan, with 49 per cent of voters surveyed saying they would back extending the mission if Mr. Manley's conditions are met. By contrast, 35 per cent would oppose extending the mission even if the recommendations were carried out. Another 12 per cent didn't support or oppose the extension, while 4 per cent didn't know. The Globe and Mail article(PDF, 79k)		Want us to let you know when other publications become available? 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