An online survey of 1,622 adult Canadians conducted from September 10th to 15th, 2019 shows a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives. The horserace results show a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the Liberals leading 35% to 32% among decided voters. Close national numbers hide wide regional gaps. In Ontario and Read more about 2019 Federal Election | September Baseline | Political Landscape[…]
Who Matters in this Election? It would be nice if every vote mattered the same, but it isn’t true. There are 150 seats where we already have a pretty good idea of who is going to win. Sixty-five seats are strong historically Conservative seats that recent polls say are very likely to continue to go Read more about 2019 Federal Election | Values Study[…]
In Canada, we count seats, not vote. Just like in American Presidential elections, you can win the popular vote and lose the election. In fact, that happened to Justin Trudeau’s father in 1979. The general way analysts address that is to look at seats by region. However, seats in the same region can move differently. Read more about 2019 Federal Election | Seat Clusters[…]
Passions, not Reason, will Determine the 2019 Federal Election Emotions trump reason. This isn’t news to anyone who has read or heard about books such as Nudge and Thinking Fast and Slow. More and more people are coming to understand that emotions, not logic, drive our decision-making in all parts of life, including politics. So how Read more about Canada This Month | Parties & Leaders | June 2019[…]
In 2016, the federal government announced it approved the Kinder Morgan oil pipeline expansion from Edmonton to Burnaby, BC (the Trans Mountain pipeline). INNOVATIVE has been tracking public support since May 2018. Overall support for the approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline has increased since September 2018, with a majority now supporting the decision, while Read more about Canada This Month | TMX | June 2019[…]
Looking back on the polls, what do the last three months tell us? Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing the last three months of our national online federal vote tracking as well as the last two waves of our Ontario telephone federal vote tracking. Overall, the Liberals retain a small national lead. However, that national stability masks Read more about Canada This Month | Political Landscape | July 2019[…]
Meng is going to be in court again this Wednesday. Here’s what BC’s sizeable population of Chinese Canadians have to say about the case. More Chinese Canadians in BC support the Federal Government’s decision to not intervene in Meng’s case than oppose it. Scroll for the full report and press release.
Comparing Online and Phone Federal Horse Race Results Download the report here.
On the surface, the results from our Canada This Month survey are encouraging for the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). We have the LPC doing better than most other polls. However, a deeper dive into the numbers reveals several concerns. This January, the LPC held an 8-point lead in British Columbia, whereas now they are Read more about Canada This Month | SNC-Lavalin | April 2019[…]
A majority (55%) of respondents have read, seen, or heard (RSH) about Rachel Notley in the last few days. In terms of impact, a plurality (32%) report that what they heard made no difference, but 29% feel “a lot less favourable”. A majority (53%) have RSH about Jason Kenney in the last few days. In terms Read more about Canada This Month | Alberta Politics | April 2019[…]